Week 4 picks: 6-7-1 (30-31-2 for the season)
Not touching these games: 1-0-1 (2-4-1)
Confidence Level Low: 2-3 (12-8)
Confidence Level Medium: 1-3 (9-9-1)
Confidence Level High: 1-1 (5-8)
Lock of the Week: 1-0 (2-2)
Week 5 bets placed:
$2.04 to win $4.04 - COLTS (-2.5) over Chiefs: Loss - Score: Chiefs 28 COLTS 24
$2.30 to win $4.30 - Eagles (-2.5) over BILLS: Loss - Score: BILLS 31 Eagles 24
$2.20 to win $4.20 - Bengals (-1) over JAGUARS: Win $4.20 - Score: Bengals 30 JAGUARS 20
$2.00 to win $4.10 - Buccaneers (+2.5) over NINERS: Loss - Score: NINERS 48 Buccaneers 3
$2.20 to win $4.20 - BRONCOS (+4.5) over Chargers: Loss - Score: Chargers 29 BRONCOS 24
$3.30 to win $6.30 - Raiders (+6) over TEXANS: Win $6.30 - Score: Raiders 25 TEXANS 20
$4.40 to win $8.40 - Raiders @ Texans Under 48.5: Win $8.40 - Score: Raiders 25 TEXANS 20
$2.00 to win $18.00 - 7.5 point pleaser - PANTHERS (-0.5) over Saints, FALCONS (-0.5) over Packers: Loss
$3.00 to win $13.05 - 5 point teaser - VA TECH (-2.5) over Miami (FL), Raiders (+10.5) over TEXANS, Bengals (+6) over JAGS, Bengals @ Jags Under 41.5: Loss
$2.00 to win $4.10 - 14 point teaser - Eagles @ Bills Over 36, Saints @ Panthers Over 37, Bengals (+15) over JAGS, Bucs (+15) over NINERS, Chargers (+10.5) over BRONCOS, Packers @ Falcons Over 39: Loss
$25.44 wagered - $18.90 collected = $6.54 loss
Week 6 Picks (HOME team in CAPS)
Not touching these games:
PACKERS (-14) over Rams
The Rams are coming off of their bye and may be the fresher team, but the talent chasm is wide. This one might be close for awhile, but in Green Bay it's tough not to see a Packer blowout.
Prediction: Packers 38 Rams 17
Texans (+7.5) over RAVENS
The Texans are banged up. Baltimore is fresh off of a bye week. But the talent level is not separated by enough to want to take the Ravens, giving more than a touchdown. Matt Schaub is still Houston's QB, and he has several talented receivers to throw to, even without Andre Johnson.
Prediction: Ravens 27 Texans 21
Confidence Level Low:
JETS (-7) over Dolphins
Both teams are a mess, but Miami is short of talent as well. New Jersey should not have much trouble containing the Dolphins offense in this one. Shonn Greene needs to get rolling.
Prediction: Jets 26 Dolphins 14
Colts (+7) over BENGALS
It is difficult to see the Bengals beating anybody by more than a touchdown (their two wins by over a TD came on last second plays). Curtis Painter has the offense rolling much better than Kerry Collins did, and the Colts defense is decent.
Prediction: Bengals 20 Colts 17
Bills (+3.5) over GIANTS
Can the Bills continue their awesome start to the season? The Giants and Titans are the two most inconsistent teams in the NFL, which makes their games difficult to predict. That said, this one should be tight. Both defenses will struggle to contain the offenses.
Prediction: Giants 30 Bills 27
Confidence Level Medium:
Eagles (-2.5) over REDSKINS
Everything about this game points to a Washington win. They run the ball well, while the Eagles can't stop the run. Their defensive line is strong and Philly's starting tackles are ailing. But sometimes, a talented team just needs a win and gets it over a less talented opponent.
Prediction: Eagles 27 Redskins 13
Cowboys (+6.5) over PATRIOTS
This game should be full of offense. Dallas is coming off of a bye week, which should have helped them recover from a slew of injuries. Neither defense looks capable of stopping the other, but the Cowboys defense may have better luck getting to Brady than the Pats defense will have getting to Romo. Should be a good game that Dallas can win.
Prediction: Cowboys 38 Patriots 34
Niners (+4) over LIONS
Two overachieving teams meet in Detroit in what should be an interesting street fight style of game. The Lions have more big play ability, but the 49ers have more potential for long drives. This one should be decided in the trenches.
Prediction: Lions 21 Niners 20
Saints (-4.5) over BUCCANEERS
The Bucs are not as bad as they looked last week, but they are not in the Saints' class yet. Being at home will help, but they will be hard pressed to contain Brees and Sproles.
Prediction: Saints 27 Buccaneers 20
Confidence Level High:
Panthers (+4) over FALCONS
Carolina is a better team than Atlanta right now. Cam Newton and Steve Smith are playing better than Matt Ryan and Roddy White. Both defenses stink. Neither team has run the ball as much as they should. It should be a good game, but the Panthers should pull it out.
Prediction: Panthers 33 Falcons 28
BEARS (-2.5) over Vikings
Neither one of these teams are any good on offense and they are both good on defense. Jay Cutler is going to take a beating in this one, but the Bears defense should do enough to win the game for them against Donovan McNabb, who reminds me of Steve McNair with how quickly his game has fallen off.
Prediction: Bears 23 Vikings 16
RAIDERS (-6.5) over Browns
The Browns need to pound Peyton Hillis, and pound him successfully if they hope to win this game. The Raiders are good on the D-line, so the Browns may try to throw instead. The Raiders hold the physical edge in this one, and McFadden should have a big game.
Prediction: Raiders 27 Browns 13
Lock of the Week:
STEELERS (-12) over Jaguars
The Steelers were immensely banged up last week and they came away with a 38-17 victory over the Titans. The Jags have a decent defense, but it's hard to see Blaine Gabbert getting anything going against Pittsburgh's defense. This one shouldn't be close.
Prediction: Steelers 31 Jaguars 6
Friday, October 14, 2011
Thursday, October 13, 2011
Week 6 Rankings
32. Indianapolis Colts (0-5) Last Week: 32
The Colts look better with Painter under center than Collins. But they are still the front runners to win the Andrew Luck award. If they lose to Cincy this week, look out! They could easily be 0-16, but they would have to be swept by Jacksonville.
31. St. Louis Rams (0-4) LW: 31
A bye week could help the Rams get on track. But with their next three being against the Packers, Cowboys, and Saints, they will likely be 0-7 before their schedule gets more manageable.
30. Miami Dolphins (0-4) LW: 30
The Matt Moore era gets underway in New York on Monday night against the Jets. Tall order, but the Jets are not playing well right now. After that game, they host Denver, which is a very winnable game.
29. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-4) LW: 26
The Jaguars may be the worst offense in the NFL, but their defense keeps them out of the bottom three spots for now. Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and Houston are looming and looking like they will send the Jags to their bye week at 1-7.
28. Arizona Cardinals (1-4) LW: 23
Kevin Kolb has not gotten it done so far this year, and the Cardinals defense is terrible. Getting blown out 34-10 by the Vikings shows how bad this team is. Beanie Wells and Larry Fitzgerald has been bright spots in a very disappointing season.
27. Denver Broncos (1-4) LW: 25
The Broncos will start Tim Tebow at QB after their bye week. Brady Quinn should start warming up; he may be coming in soon.
26. Minnesota Vikings (1-4) LW: 29
Another lackluster second half performance was masked by an awesome first quarter performance that took the fight out of the Cardinals. The Vikings travel to Chicago this week to play another must win game. It's time to shelve McNabb and see what Christian Ponder can do.
25. Cleveland Browns (2-2) LW: 24
After their bye, the Browns travel to Oakland to take on the Raiders. Their best hope may be to catch the Raiders on an emotional low, because the Browns defense will struggle to shut the Oakland running game down. Colt McCoy and Peyton Hillis need to be better. Greg Little breaking out at WR wouldn't hurt either.
24. Kansas City Chiefs (2-3) LW: 28
Kansas City has won two straight, albeit over winless Minnesota and Indianapolis. Matt Cassel and Dwayne Bowe are playing well, and Jackie Battle has emerged as a backfield threat for the Chiefs. They are one of the few teams that probably doesn't want their bye this week, since they have been playing well.
23. Carolina Panthers (1-4) LW: 21
Yes, the Panthers are 1-4, but their losses have been close games where they had a chance to win. And three of those games were against the Bears, Saints, and Packers. Carolina travels to Atlanta this week to play a Falcons team that they can beat.
22. Seattle Seahawks (2-3) LW: 27
The Seahawks are playing well for Pete Carroll, and they are coming off of a shocking 36-25 win over the Giants in New York. Tarvaris Jackson has been better and Marshawn Lynch is finally running well. Their defense is actually pretty good. The Seahawks are going to pull some upsets this year.
21. Philadelphia Eagles (1-4) LW: 19
The Eagles are a poster child for signing players that fit your identity. They went out and signed a bunch of high priced and coveted free agents in the offseason, and those players are underperforming in a new scheme. Maybe they will play better later in the season, but for now the Eagles look like a bust.
20. Atlanta Falcons (2-3) LW: 20
Atlanta's defense has been a disappointment this year and for that matter, so has their offense. They are dangerously close to becoming a bad football team. This week's game against the Panthers has a must win feel about it. A home loss may cause a team that went 13-3 last year to panic.
19. Cincinnati Bengals (3-2) LW: 22
The Bengals survived to beat Jacksonville 30-20 last week in a game they easily could have lost. They have been the recipient of one of the easiest schedules in the league so far, and they play the Colts and Seahawks in the next two weeks. A.J. Green and Andy Dalton have good rapport and they are playing much better than expected this year. But it is their defense that is winning for them.
18. Chicago Bears (2-3) LW: 18
Jay Cutler throws everything off of his back foot, but so far it hasn't really hurt him. The Bears offensive line is terrible, and may keep this team out of the playoffs. Urlacher and the defense have been excellent so far.
17. Tennessee Titans (3-2) LW: 15
The Titans went into Pittsburgh and got smacked by the Steelers, 38-17. It's hard to know what to expect from this team on a week to week basis. They have looked great in beating the Ravens and Browns, but they have a bad loss to the Jaguars, they squeaked by Denver, and they were whipped by Pittsburgh.
16. New York Giants (3-2) LW: 10
A bad loss at home to Seattle brought the Giants' expectations crashing back to earth. Their defense is still porous, but their offense has been good, Eli Manning's 3 interception performance last week notwithstanding. They host the Bills this week, in what should be a very entertaining game.
15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-2) LW: 13
Going into San Francisco and getting whipped 48-3 hasn't been an acceptable result since the 1990s. Was it one awful game, or does this team has some serious problems to address? This week's game against the Saints is a big one. Win, and people will forget what happened last week.
14. New York Jets (2-3) LW: 8
The Jets have lost three straight, all to good teams: the Raiders, Patriots, and Ravens. But this team is still on the verge of having the wheels fall off. Monday night against the Dolphins is a must win. Preferably, a must win big.
13. Washington Redskins (3-1) LW: 17
When do you jump four spots on your bye week? When four teams above you all have bad losses that week! The Redskins host the Eagles this week, knowing that they can deliver a knockout blow with a win. But the Eagles will be desperate, and they will try to force Rex Grossman to beat them.
12. Dallas Cowboys (2-2) LW: 11
The Cowboys have a date with the Patriots after having a bye last week. Tony Romo looked great against Detroit early and then melted down in the second half. If he is more consistent, the Cowboys can win.
11. Houston Texans (3-2) LW: 5
The Texans had no business losing to the Raiders last week after dominating the first half. But the Raiders hung around and took the game away late. This has been the trend in Houston, and this team needs to reverse that trend if they are going to seriously contend in the playoffs.
10. Oakland Raiders (3-2) LW: 14
The Raiders got an emotional 25-20 win over Houston after the passing of Al Davis. This week they host the Browns, who they should thrash, if they can avoid an emotional letdown.
9. San Francisco 49ers (4-1) LW: 16
This week's biggest mover off of a 48-3 win over the Bucs, the 49ers travel to Detroit to take on the undefeated Lions. It should be an excellent barometer for both teams. Alex Smith has been very good. Can he keep it up?
8. Buffalo Bills (4-1) LW: 12
The Bills got an important bounce back victory over the Eagles last week, and they travel to New York to play the Giants this week. Fitzpatrick and Jackson are having stellar seasons.
7. San Diego Chargers (4-1) LW: 7
The Chargers are 4-1, but their four wins came in close games over bottom dwellers, so it's hard to take them seriously. They may be in a dogfight with the Raiders for the division title this year.
6. Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2) LW: 9
The Steelers finally clicked in their 38-17 win over the Titans. They host the Jaguars this week, in what should be a blowout win. Mike Tomlin always seems to have this team ready to play.
5. Detroit Lions (5-0) LW: 6
The Lions are 5-0, but they have had to erase two large second half deficits to get there. Matthew Stafford is not as accurate as the stats say, and the team has trouble running the ball consistently. The defense also has holes. They are good, but don't expect them to go 13-3 this year. 11-5 sounds about right.
4. New Orleans Saints (4-1) LW: 4
The Saints escaped with a 30-27 win over Carolina last week, and this week they travel to Tampa in what is a huge bounce back game for the Bucs. Darren Sproles has been the free agent pickup of the year.
3. New England Patriots (4-1) LW: 3
The Patriots are looking like their usual unstoppable selves. They could get a stiff challenge from Romo and the Cowboys this week, however. The Pats defense still stinks.
2. Baltimore Ravens (3-1) LW: 2
The Ravens are coming off of their bye week with a game at home against the suddenly reeling Texans. Their defense needs to shut down Arian Foster.
1. Green Bay Packers (5-0) LW: 1
The Packers are still looking unstoppable right now. And the Rams come to town this week, so that's not likely to change soon.
The Colts look better with Painter under center than Collins. But they are still the front runners to win the Andrew Luck award. If they lose to Cincy this week, look out! They could easily be 0-16, but they would have to be swept by Jacksonville.
31. St. Louis Rams (0-4) LW: 31
A bye week could help the Rams get on track. But with their next three being against the Packers, Cowboys, and Saints, they will likely be 0-7 before their schedule gets more manageable.
30. Miami Dolphins (0-4) LW: 30
The Matt Moore era gets underway in New York on Monday night against the Jets. Tall order, but the Jets are not playing well right now. After that game, they host Denver, which is a very winnable game.
29. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-4) LW: 26
The Jaguars may be the worst offense in the NFL, but their defense keeps them out of the bottom three spots for now. Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and Houston are looming and looking like they will send the Jags to their bye week at 1-7.
28. Arizona Cardinals (1-4) LW: 23
Kevin Kolb has not gotten it done so far this year, and the Cardinals defense is terrible. Getting blown out 34-10 by the Vikings shows how bad this team is. Beanie Wells and Larry Fitzgerald has been bright spots in a very disappointing season.
27. Denver Broncos (1-4) LW: 25
The Broncos will start Tim Tebow at QB after their bye week. Brady Quinn should start warming up; he may be coming in soon.
26. Minnesota Vikings (1-4) LW: 29
Another lackluster second half performance was masked by an awesome first quarter performance that took the fight out of the Cardinals. The Vikings travel to Chicago this week to play another must win game. It's time to shelve McNabb and see what Christian Ponder can do.
25. Cleveland Browns (2-2) LW: 24
After their bye, the Browns travel to Oakland to take on the Raiders. Their best hope may be to catch the Raiders on an emotional low, because the Browns defense will struggle to shut the Oakland running game down. Colt McCoy and Peyton Hillis need to be better. Greg Little breaking out at WR wouldn't hurt either.
24. Kansas City Chiefs (2-3) LW: 28
Kansas City has won two straight, albeit over winless Minnesota and Indianapolis. Matt Cassel and Dwayne Bowe are playing well, and Jackie Battle has emerged as a backfield threat for the Chiefs. They are one of the few teams that probably doesn't want their bye this week, since they have been playing well.
23. Carolina Panthers (1-4) LW: 21
Yes, the Panthers are 1-4, but their losses have been close games where they had a chance to win. And three of those games were against the Bears, Saints, and Packers. Carolina travels to Atlanta this week to play a Falcons team that they can beat.
22. Seattle Seahawks (2-3) LW: 27
The Seahawks are playing well for Pete Carroll, and they are coming off of a shocking 36-25 win over the Giants in New York. Tarvaris Jackson has been better and Marshawn Lynch is finally running well. Their defense is actually pretty good. The Seahawks are going to pull some upsets this year.
21. Philadelphia Eagles (1-4) LW: 19
The Eagles are a poster child for signing players that fit your identity. They went out and signed a bunch of high priced and coveted free agents in the offseason, and those players are underperforming in a new scheme. Maybe they will play better later in the season, but for now the Eagles look like a bust.
20. Atlanta Falcons (2-3) LW: 20
Atlanta's defense has been a disappointment this year and for that matter, so has their offense. They are dangerously close to becoming a bad football team. This week's game against the Panthers has a must win feel about it. A home loss may cause a team that went 13-3 last year to panic.
19. Cincinnati Bengals (3-2) LW: 22
The Bengals survived to beat Jacksonville 30-20 last week in a game they easily could have lost. They have been the recipient of one of the easiest schedules in the league so far, and they play the Colts and Seahawks in the next two weeks. A.J. Green and Andy Dalton have good rapport and they are playing much better than expected this year. But it is their defense that is winning for them.
18. Chicago Bears (2-3) LW: 18
Jay Cutler throws everything off of his back foot, but so far it hasn't really hurt him. The Bears offensive line is terrible, and may keep this team out of the playoffs. Urlacher and the defense have been excellent so far.
17. Tennessee Titans (3-2) LW: 15
The Titans went into Pittsburgh and got smacked by the Steelers, 38-17. It's hard to know what to expect from this team on a week to week basis. They have looked great in beating the Ravens and Browns, but they have a bad loss to the Jaguars, they squeaked by Denver, and they were whipped by Pittsburgh.
16. New York Giants (3-2) LW: 10
A bad loss at home to Seattle brought the Giants' expectations crashing back to earth. Their defense is still porous, but their offense has been good, Eli Manning's 3 interception performance last week notwithstanding. They host the Bills this week, in what should be a very entertaining game.
15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-2) LW: 13
Going into San Francisco and getting whipped 48-3 hasn't been an acceptable result since the 1990s. Was it one awful game, or does this team has some serious problems to address? This week's game against the Saints is a big one. Win, and people will forget what happened last week.
14. New York Jets (2-3) LW: 8
The Jets have lost three straight, all to good teams: the Raiders, Patriots, and Ravens. But this team is still on the verge of having the wheels fall off. Monday night against the Dolphins is a must win. Preferably, a must win big.
13. Washington Redskins (3-1) LW: 17
When do you jump four spots on your bye week? When four teams above you all have bad losses that week! The Redskins host the Eagles this week, knowing that they can deliver a knockout blow with a win. But the Eagles will be desperate, and they will try to force Rex Grossman to beat them.
12. Dallas Cowboys (2-2) LW: 11
The Cowboys have a date with the Patriots after having a bye last week. Tony Romo looked great against Detroit early and then melted down in the second half. If he is more consistent, the Cowboys can win.
11. Houston Texans (3-2) LW: 5
The Texans had no business losing to the Raiders last week after dominating the first half. But the Raiders hung around and took the game away late. This has been the trend in Houston, and this team needs to reverse that trend if they are going to seriously contend in the playoffs.
10. Oakland Raiders (3-2) LW: 14
The Raiders got an emotional 25-20 win over Houston after the passing of Al Davis. This week they host the Browns, who they should thrash, if they can avoid an emotional letdown.
9. San Francisco 49ers (4-1) LW: 16
This week's biggest mover off of a 48-3 win over the Bucs, the 49ers travel to Detroit to take on the undefeated Lions. It should be an excellent barometer for both teams. Alex Smith has been very good. Can he keep it up?
8. Buffalo Bills (4-1) LW: 12
The Bills got an important bounce back victory over the Eagles last week, and they travel to New York to play the Giants this week. Fitzpatrick and Jackson are having stellar seasons.
7. San Diego Chargers (4-1) LW: 7
The Chargers are 4-1, but their four wins came in close games over bottom dwellers, so it's hard to take them seriously. They may be in a dogfight with the Raiders for the division title this year.
6. Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2) LW: 9
The Steelers finally clicked in their 38-17 win over the Titans. They host the Jaguars this week, in what should be a blowout win. Mike Tomlin always seems to have this team ready to play.
5. Detroit Lions (5-0) LW: 6
The Lions are 5-0, but they have had to erase two large second half deficits to get there. Matthew Stafford is not as accurate as the stats say, and the team has trouble running the ball consistently. The defense also has holes. They are good, but don't expect them to go 13-3 this year. 11-5 sounds about right.
4. New Orleans Saints (4-1) LW: 4
The Saints escaped with a 30-27 win over Carolina last week, and this week they travel to Tampa in what is a huge bounce back game for the Bucs. Darren Sproles has been the free agent pickup of the year.
3. New England Patriots (4-1) LW: 3
The Patriots are looking like their usual unstoppable selves. They could get a stiff challenge from Romo and the Cowboys this week, however. The Pats defense still stinks.
2. Baltimore Ravens (3-1) LW: 2
The Ravens are coming off of their bye week with a game at home against the suddenly reeling Texans. Their defense needs to shut down Arian Foster.
1. Green Bay Packers (5-0) LW: 1
The Packers are still looking unstoppable right now. And the Rams come to town this week, so that's not likely to change soon.
Friday, October 7, 2011
Week 5 Picks
Week 4 Picks: 8-8 (24-24-1)
Not touching this game: 0-1 (1-4 for season)
Confidence Low : 3-2 (10-5)
Confidence Medium: 3-3 (8-6-1)
Confidence High : 2-1 (4-7)
Lock of Week: 0-1 (1-2)
Week 4 bets placed:
$3.30 to win $6.30 - Vikings (-1) over CHIEFS: Loss - Score: Chiefs 22 Vikings 17
$3.00 to win $6.30 - Lions (Pick) over COWBOYS: Win $6.30 - Score: Lions 34 Cowboys 30
$2.08 to win $4.08 - Steelers (+3.5) over TEXANS: Loss - Score: Texans 17 Steelers 10
$2.00 to win $4.10 - Bills (-3) over BENGALS: Loss - Score: Bengals 23 Bills 20
$2.10 to win $4.10 - Titans (+1) over BROWNS: Win $4.10 - Score: Titans 31 Browns 13
$2.20 to win $4.20 - RAMS (+3) over Redskins: Loss - Score: Redskins 17 Rams 10
$3.00 to win $13.05 - 4 team teaser: CHARGERS (-2.5) over Dolphins, Steelers (+8) over TEXANS, Vikings (+2) over CHIEFS, Saints (-5) over JAGUARS: Loss
$17.68 wagered - $10.40 collected = $7.28 loss
Week 5 Picks (HOME team in CAPS)
Not touching these games:
STEELERS (-3) over Titans
Even if Roethlisberger plays, will he be effective? Will the Steelers defense struggle without Harrison? Would Dennis Dixon dominate the game if he has to start? There are way too many questions and the Titans are too good to take Pittsburgh here. But I can't take the Titans to win (or lose by less than a FG) in Pittsburgh.
Prediction: Steelers 21 Titans 17
Jets (+9) over PATRIOTS
Either way you bet this one, you could end up feeling like a fool. The Jets aren't playing well, while the Patriots are, and the Patriots can blow anyone out on any given day. However, the Jets almost always play the Pats tough. Nine points looks a bit too high in this rivalry though.
Prediction: Patriots 24 Jets 17
Confidence Level Low:
COLTS (-2) over Chiefs
When two teams are this bad, it's hard to predict the outcome. It seems as if the Colts passing game is slowly coming to life, and their defense has been getting better. The Chiefs have played better the last couple of weeks, but they are due for a letdown after finally winning a game.
Prediction: Colts 23 Chiefs 17
VIKINGS (-2.5) over Cardinals
When two teams are this bad...wait have I said this before? OK, the Vikings have to show up sooner or later, right? How long can I keep this string of questions going? The Cardinals can't play defense, which is why the Vikings will get their first win of the season.
Prediction: Vikings 23 Cardinals 20
Bengals (+2.5) over JAGUARS
Two defensive teams should make for a snoozer for the casual fan. Cincinnati's offense and defense are both a little better than Jacksonville's.
Prediction: Bengals 13 Jaguars 10
FALCONS (+6) over Packers
This one is a revenge game for the NFC Divisional playoff last year where the Packers embarrassed the Falcons, 48-21 in the Georgia Dome. The Packers are a much better team, but they haven't been really challenged lately, and the Falcons will have plenty of motivation.
Prediction: Packers 31 Falcons 27
Bears (+5) over LIONS
The Lions are not quite as good as people think they are, and the Bears have weapons that can hurt them. Matt Forte has been spectacular, but he will be utilized more in the passing game than in the running game this week against a tough Detroit defensive front. The Lions cannot run the ball, and Chicago's defense is strong against the pass. Should be a close game.
Prediction: Lions 27 Bears 24
Confidence Level Medium:
Eagles (-2.5) over BILLS
The Eagles are more talented than the Bills, and this is somewhat of a desperation game for them. Buffalo overachieved in the first three weeks. They are starting to come back down to earth.
Prediction: Eagles 34 Bills 24
PANTHERS (+6.5) over Saints
Cam Newton is the king of the backdoor cover, meaning that he drives the Panthers for late TDs to lose by 5, therefore beating the spread, rather than losing by 12, and not covering. This is a big game for Carolina, and they may catch the Saints a little flat. This one smells like an upset.
Prediction: Panthers 38 Saints 34
GIANTS (-9.5) over Seahawks
Always bet on the Seahawks in Seattle and against them anywhere else. The Giants' pass rush should tie Tavaris in knots. The Seattle defense is pretty good, but they will be on the field far too long in this one. This game will start getting the Giants overrated.
Prediction: Giants 26 Seahawks 6
Buccaneers (+2.5) over NINERS
Josh Freeman feels like he is going to break out this week. The 49ers are a pretty good team, but the Bucs are better. Alex Smith has an awful game coming before long, and this could be it.
Prediction: Buccaneers 24 Niners 17
Confidence Level High:
Raiders (+5.5) over TEXANS
No Andre Johnson or Ben Tate and the Texans are still five and a half point favorites? Oakland is coming off a tough loss to New England and Houston just won a "We did it" game. Sounds like a trap game to me. The Raiders defense is better than they have shown and nobody can totally shut down their running game. This one is going to be a running fest.
Prediction: Raiders 17 Texans 14
BRONCOS (+3.5) over Chargers
The Chargers haven't lost to a much inferior team yet this year. That means they aren't going to play well. Brandon Lloyd is a handful, and he may come up with a few big plays to win this one at Mile High.
Prediction: Broncos 26 Chargers 23
Lock of the Week:
Raiders @ Texans - Under 48.5
The Raiders are Texans are going to keep the ball on the ground for most of the game. Translation: The clock, like the clock in San Dimas, is always running. Not that many points will be scored as a result, much to the chagrin of Bill and Ted.
Not touching this game: 0-1 (1-4 for season)
Confidence Low : 3-2 (10-5)
Confidence Medium: 3-3 (8-6-1)
Confidence High : 2-1 (4-7)
Lock of Week: 0-1 (1-2)
Week 4 bets placed:
$3.30 to win $6.30 - Vikings (-1) over CHIEFS: Loss - Score: Chiefs 22 Vikings 17
$3.00 to win $6.30 - Lions (Pick) over COWBOYS: Win $6.30 - Score: Lions 34 Cowboys 30
$2.08 to win $4.08 - Steelers (+3.5) over TEXANS: Loss - Score: Texans 17 Steelers 10
$2.00 to win $4.10 - Bills (-3) over BENGALS: Loss - Score: Bengals 23 Bills 20
$2.10 to win $4.10 - Titans (+1) over BROWNS: Win $4.10 - Score: Titans 31 Browns 13
$2.20 to win $4.20 - RAMS (+3) over Redskins: Loss - Score: Redskins 17 Rams 10
$3.00 to win $13.05 - 4 team teaser: CHARGERS (-2.5) over Dolphins, Steelers (+8) over TEXANS, Vikings (+2) over CHIEFS, Saints (-5) over JAGUARS: Loss
$17.68 wagered - $10.40 collected = $7.28 loss
Week 5 Picks (HOME team in CAPS)
Not touching these games:
STEELERS (-3) over Titans
Even if Roethlisberger plays, will he be effective? Will the Steelers defense struggle without Harrison? Would Dennis Dixon dominate the game if he has to start? There are way too many questions and the Titans are too good to take Pittsburgh here. But I can't take the Titans to win (or lose by less than a FG) in Pittsburgh.
Prediction: Steelers 21 Titans 17
Jets (+9) over PATRIOTS
Either way you bet this one, you could end up feeling like a fool. The Jets aren't playing well, while the Patriots are, and the Patriots can blow anyone out on any given day. However, the Jets almost always play the Pats tough. Nine points looks a bit too high in this rivalry though.
Prediction: Patriots 24 Jets 17
Confidence Level Low:
COLTS (-2) over Chiefs
When two teams are this bad, it's hard to predict the outcome. It seems as if the Colts passing game is slowly coming to life, and their defense has been getting better. The Chiefs have played better the last couple of weeks, but they are due for a letdown after finally winning a game.
Prediction: Colts 23 Chiefs 17
VIKINGS (-2.5) over Cardinals
When two teams are this bad...wait have I said this before? OK, the Vikings have to show up sooner or later, right? How long can I keep this string of questions going? The Cardinals can't play defense, which is why the Vikings will get their first win of the season.
Prediction: Vikings 23 Cardinals 20
Bengals (+2.5) over JAGUARS
Two defensive teams should make for a snoozer for the casual fan. Cincinnati's offense and defense are both a little better than Jacksonville's.
Prediction: Bengals 13 Jaguars 10
FALCONS (+6) over Packers
This one is a revenge game for the NFC Divisional playoff last year where the Packers embarrassed the Falcons, 48-21 in the Georgia Dome. The Packers are a much better team, but they haven't been really challenged lately, and the Falcons will have plenty of motivation.
Prediction: Packers 31 Falcons 27
Bears (+5) over LIONS
The Lions are not quite as good as people think they are, and the Bears have weapons that can hurt them. Matt Forte has been spectacular, but he will be utilized more in the passing game than in the running game this week against a tough Detroit defensive front. The Lions cannot run the ball, and Chicago's defense is strong against the pass. Should be a close game.
Prediction: Lions 27 Bears 24
Confidence Level Medium:
Eagles (-2.5) over BILLS
The Eagles are more talented than the Bills, and this is somewhat of a desperation game for them. Buffalo overachieved in the first three weeks. They are starting to come back down to earth.
Prediction: Eagles 34 Bills 24
PANTHERS (+6.5) over Saints
Cam Newton is the king of the backdoor cover, meaning that he drives the Panthers for late TDs to lose by 5, therefore beating the spread, rather than losing by 12, and not covering. This is a big game for Carolina, and they may catch the Saints a little flat. This one smells like an upset.
Prediction: Panthers 38 Saints 34
GIANTS (-9.5) over Seahawks
Always bet on the Seahawks in Seattle and against them anywhere else. The Giants' pass rush should tie Tavaris in knots. The Seattle defense is pretty good, but they will be on the field far too long in this one. This game will start getting the Giants overrated.
Prediction: Giants 26 Seahawks 6
Buccaneers (+2.5) over NINERS
Josh Freeman feels like he is going to break out this week. The 49ers are a pretty good team, but the Bucs are better. Alex Smith has an awful game coming before long, and this could be it.
Prediction: Buccaneers 24 Niners 17
Confidence Level High:
Raiders (+5.5) over TEXANS
No Andre Johnson or Ben Tate and the Texans are still five and a half point favorites? Oakland is coming off a tough loss to New England and Houston just won a "We did it" game. Sounds like a trap game to me. The Raiders defense is better than they have shown and nobody can totally shut down their running game. This one is going to be a running fest.
Prediction: Raiders 17 Texans 14
BRONCOS (+3.5) over Chargers
The Chargers haven't lost to a much inferior team yet this year. That means they aren't going to play well. Brandon Lloyd is a handful, and he may come up with a few big plays to win this one at Mile High.
Prediction: Broncos 26 Chargers 23
Lock of the Week:
Raiders @ Texans - Under 48.5
The Raiders are Texans are going to keep the ball on the ground for most of the game. Translation: The clock, like the clock in San Dimas, is always running. Not that many points will be scored as a result, much to the chagrin of Bill and Ted.
Tuesday, October 4, 2011
Week 5 Rankings
32. Indianapolis Colts (0-4) Last week: 31
The Colts look better every week and had chances to win in their last two in Tampa and against Pittsburgh. Curtis Painter seems to have outplayed Kerry Collins and should be the starter going forward. Hosting the Chiefs this week could result in their first win.
31. St. Louis Rams (0-4) LW: 27
The Rams have looked abysmal in their last two losses (to the Ravens and Redskins). They have a bye this week before traveling to Green Bay and Dallas the next two weeks. The second half of their schedule gets softer, but this team will likely start 0-7.
30. Miami Dolphins (0-4) LW: 28
Matt Moore played well in relief of Chad Henne, and he may have the job going forward. The Dolphins have a bye this week as they try to figure out their identity on offense. And their defense has major issues to fix.
29. Minnesota Vikings (0-4) LW: 26
The Vikings lost to the hapless Chiefs, 22-17 last week, and head home to face Arizona. Donovan McNabb has been awful. Is it time to see what Christian Ponder can do?
28. Kansas City Chiefs (1-3) LW: 32
The Chiefs finally got a win last week, and they travel to Indianapolis looking to make it two straight. Cassel is looking better (though they still need to upgrade at QB) and Dwayne Bowe is beginning to emerge. Their defense is making the biggest strides, however.
27. Seattle Seahawks (1-3) LW: 30
The Seahawks came from way behind, but they fell short against Atlanta, 30-28. Tarvaris Jackson played his best game as a pro, throwing for 319 yards and 3 TDs. This week they travel to New York to play the Giants. Tall order, seeing as this team only seems to play well at home.
26. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-3) LW: 25
The Jaguars are not an awful football team. They just aren't very talented. Their defense held New Orleans to 23 points last week and they host Cincinnati this week, which is a very winnable game.
25. Denver Broncos (1-3) LW: 24
Losing big in Green Bay was not a surprise. This week the Broncos host the Chargers, needing to spring an upset to stay relevant in the AFC West. If Kyle Orton doesn't start well, the fans could make this one a home field disadvantage, with their booing and Tebow chants. Brandon Lloyd and Willis McGahee have been very good, but the Broncos defense stinks.
24. Cleveland Browns (2-2) LW: 22
The Browns are 2-2 after playing the Bengals, Colts, Dolphins, and Titans. How good could they be?
23. Arizona Cardinals (1-3) LW: 23
The Cardinals will rue their missed chances after losing 31-27 to the Giants last week. Beanie Wells has has best game, running for 138 yards and 3TDs, but the pass defense continues to struggle mightily. They need to go into Minnesota and beat the Vikings this week.
22. Cincinnati Bengals (2-2) LW: 29
The Bengals ruined one of the feel good stories of the year when they beat Buffalo 23-20 last week. This week they travel to Jacksonville to play another winnable game. The Bengals boast the league's number one defense, and it should stay that way for awhile with coming games against the Jaguars, Colts, and Seahawks.
21. Carolina Panthers (1-3) LW: 21
The Panthers gave up a punt return and interception for touchdowns and still only lost 34-29 to the Bears. Steve Smith is having a resurgence this year. They have a tough matchup against the Saints this week. Could be a track meet.
20. Atlanta Falcons (2-2) LW: 18
When do you drop two spots after a win? When you need a missed field goal to beat Seattle, 30-28. The Falcons defense is a mess right now, though their offense finally looks to have gotten on track.
19. Philadelphia Eagles (1-3) LW: 14
What is wrong with the Eagles? They were the better team last week, but they blew a 23-3 lead in losing to San Francisco, 24-23. They are lacking a killer instinct. What's more, they travel to Buffalo to take on the Bills this week. The Eagles need their defense to step up or it's going to be a long year.
18. Chicago Bears (2-2) LW: 17
The Bears ran all over Carolina, but barely won the game. This week they travel to Detroit to take on the 4-0 Lions on Monday night. Matt Forte is the key to this offense; the less they have to rely on Jay Cutler, the better.
17. Washington Redskins (3-1) LW: 17
Rex Grossman is looking more and more like Bad Rex these days. The Redskins have a very good defense and a good running game, so they don't need Rex to be elite, just decent. They have a bye this week before hosting the Eagles in Week Six.
16. San Francisco 49ers (3-1) LW: 19
Amazingly, the 49ers came from twenty points down to beat the Eagles 24-23 to win both games of their eastern road trip. Their running game has gotten on track and Alex Smith has looked competent when he is allowed to throw downfield. They will get a big test when the Bucs come to town this week.
15. Tennessee Titans (3-1) LW: 20
The Titans look like they are for real after their 31-13 pounding of Cleveland last week. They travel to Pittsburgh this week looking to prove it. Matt Hasselbeck has been great, but you have to wonder how good this team could be with a healthy Kenny Britt.
14. Oakland Raiders (2-2) LW: 10
The Raiders were smoked by New England 31-19 last week, and they travel to Houston to play another tough game this week. Oakland is good enough to beat the Texans without Andre Johnson, but they must stop the run (which they have not done so far this year) to do it.
13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1) LW: 15
The Bucs escaped with a 24-17 win over the Colts on Monday night, where they failed to assert themselves as a top team. They travel to play a sneaky good San Francisco team this week. LaGarrette Blount finally got going against the Colts and Josh Freeman was unspectacular, but effective as usual.
12. Buffalo Bills (3-1) LW: 7
The Bills struggled mightily on offense throughout their 23-20 loss at Cincinnati last week. They should put up better numbers against the Eagles this week, but a win would be better. Their defense will be tested, and they may not be up to the task.
11. Dallas Cowboys (2-2) LW: 11
The Cowboys finally reach their bye week and have a great chance to finally get healthy. They are extremely talented, but thin, so they should be tough when healthy.
10. New York Giants (3-1) LW: 13
The Giants just keep winning and a home game against Seattle this week shouldn't change that formula any. They were lucky to escape Arizona with a 31-27 win.
9. Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2) LW: 8
The Steelers were physically defeated by the Texans, and they have a lot of injuries right now. They have struggled on defense this year and their offensive line has been Bear-esque (that's not a compliment). But if Roethlisberger is healthy they should still handle the Titans.
8. New York Jets (2-2) LW: 5
Mark Sanchez looked shell shocked late in the Jets 34-17 loss to the Ravens on Sunday night. The Jets need to get back to running the football. A date with the Patriots may actually help. The Pats defense has been awful and the Jets have handled the New England offense well lately.
7. San Diego Chargers (3-1) LW: 12
The Chargers have not looked impressive this year, but they keep winning. Philip Rivers finally avoided throwing an interception for the first time this year, but this is another team that is having injury problems. They travel to Denver this week to play a classic trap game.
6. Detroit Lions (4-0) LW: 6
The Lions are ranked this low because they have been largely outplayed the last two weeks, though they have come from behind to win both games. Dallas totally dominated the Lions last week, but Detroit escaped with a 34-30 win. The Lions host the Bears on Monday night in what could be a great game.
5. Houston Texans (3-1) LW: 9
The Texans looked great against Pittsburgh last week, winning 17-10. Andre Johnson's hamstring injury is a major concern, but when he returns this team could do some major damage. Their defense is ferocious.
4. New Orleans Saints (3-1) LW: 3
The Saints continue to roll as they easily beat Jacksonville, 23-10. Jimmy Graham is an emerging stud at TE. A trip to Carolina should test their questionable defense.
3. New England Patriots (3-1) LW: 2
The Patriots responded to their loss by returning to running the football in a 31-19 win over the Raiders. Steven Ridley is an emerging force on the ground. Next the Patriots take on their nemesis, the Jets.
2. Baltimore Ravens (3-1) LW: 4
The Ravens defense was awesome on Sunday night, scoring three touchdowns! Joe Flacco needs to be more consistent, but this team looks tough.
1. Green Bay Packers (4-0) LW: 1
The Packers are looking great through four weeks, though they haven't played a good team since opening night. A trip to Atlanta on Sunday night shouldn't be too tough of a test, but the Falcons are sure to have revenge on their minds after the playoff beatdown Green Bay put on them last year.
The Colts look better every week and had chances to win in their last two in Tampa and against Pittsburgh. Curtis Painter seems to have outplayed Kerry Collins and should be the starter going forward. Hosting the Chiefs this week could result in their first win.
31. St. Louis Rams (0-4) LW: 27
The Rams have looked abysmal in their last two losses (to the Ravens and Redskins). They have a bye this week before traveling to Green Bay and Dallas the next two weeks. The second half of their schedule gets softer, but this team will likely start 0-7.
30. Miami Dolphins (0-4) LW: 28
Matt Moore played well in relief of Chad Henne, and he may have the job going forward. The Dolphins have a bye this week as they try to figure out their identity on offense. And their defense has major issues to fix.
29. Minnesota Vikings (0-4) LW: 26
The Vikings lost to the hapless Chiefs, 22-17 last week, and head home to face Arizona. Donovan McNabb has been awful. Is it time to see what Christian Ponder can do?
28. Kansas City Chiefs (1-3) LW: 32
The Chiefs finally got a win last week, and they travel to Indianapolis looking to make it two straight. Cassel is looking better (though they still need to upgrade at QB) and Dwayne Bowe is beginning to emerge. Their defense is making the biggest strides, however.
27. Seattle Seahawks (1-3) LW: 30
The Seahawks came from way behind, but they fell short against Atlanta, 30-28. Tarvaris Jackson played his best game as a pro, throwing for 319 yards and 3 TDs. This week they travel to New York to play the Giants. Tall order, seeing as this team only seems to play well at home.
26. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-3) LW: 25
The Jaguars are not an awful football team. They just aren't very talented. Their defense held New Orleans to 23 points last week and they host Cincinnati this week, which is a very winnable game.
25. Denver Broncos (1-3) LW: 24
Losing big in Green Bay was not a surprise. This week the Broncos host the Chargers, needing to spring an upset to stay relevant in the AFC West. If Kyle Orton doesn't start well, the fans could make this one a home field disadvantage, with their booing and Tebow chants. Brandon Lloyd and Willis McGahee have been very good, but the Broncos defense stinks.
24. Cleveland Browns (2-2) LW: 22
The Browns are 2-2 after playing the Bengals, Colts, Dolphins, and Titans. How good could they be?
23. Arizona Cardinals (1-3) LW: 23
The Cardinals will rue their missed chances after losing 31-27 to the Giants last week. Beanie Wells has has best game, running for 138 yards and 3TDs, but the pass defense continues to struggle mightily. They need to go into Minnesota and beat the Vikings this week.
22. Cincinnati Bengals (2-2) LW: 29
The Bengals ruined one of the feel good stories of the year when they beat Buffalo 23-20 last week. This week they travel to Jacksonville to play another winnable game. The Bengals boast the league's number one defense, and it should stay that way for awhile with coming games against the Jaguars, Colts, and Seahawks.
21. Carolina Panthers (1-3) LW: 21
The Panthers gave up a punt return and interception for touchdowns and still only lost 34-29 to the Bears. Steve Smith is having a resurgence this year. They have a tough matchup against the Saints this week. Could be a track meet.
20. Atlanta Falcons (2-2) LW: 18
When do you drop two spots after a win? When you need a missed field goal to beat Seattle, 30-28. The Falcons defense is a mess right now, though their offense finally looks to have gotten on track.
19. Philadelphia Eagles (1-3) LW: 14
What is wrong with the Eagles? They were the better team last week, but they blew a 23-3 lead in losing to San Francisco, 24-23. They are lacking a killer instinct. What's more, they travel to Buffalo to take on the Bills this week. The Eagles need their defense to step up or it's going to be a long year.
18. Chicago Bears (2-2) LW: 17
The Bears ran all over Carolina, but barely won the game. This week they travel to Detroit to take on the 4-0 Lions on Monday night. Matt Forte is the key to this offense; the less they have to rely on Jay Cutler, the better.
17. Washington Redskins (3-1) LW: 17
Rex Grossman is looking more and more like Bad Rex these days. The Redskins have a very good defense and a good running game, so they don't need Rex to be elite, just decent. They have a bye this week before hosting the Eagles in Week Six.
16. San Francisco 49ers (3-1) LW: 19
Amazingly, the 49ers came from twenty points down to beat the Eagles 24-23 to win both games of their eastern road trip. Their running game has gotten on track and Alex Smith has looked competent when he is allowed to throw downfield. They will get a big test when the Bucs come to town this week.
15. Tennessee Titans (3-1) LW: 20
The Titans look like they are for real after their 31-13 pounding of Cleveland last week. They travel to Pittsburgh this week looking to prove it. Matt Hasselbeck has been great, but you have to wonder how good this team could be with a healthy Kenny Britt.
14. Oakland Raiders (2-2) LW: 10
The Raiders were smoked by New England 31-19 last week, and they travel to Houston to play another tough game this week. Oakland is good enough to beat the Texans without Andre Johnson, but they must stop the run (which they have not done so far this year) to do it.
13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1) LW: 15
The Bucs escaped with a 24-17 win over the Colts on Monday night, where they failed to assert themselves as a top team. They travel to play a sneaky good San Francisco team this week. LaGarrette Blount finally got going against the Colts and Josh Freeman was unspectacular, but effective as usual.
12. Buffalo Bills (3-1) LW: 7
The Bills struggled mightily on offense throughout their 23-20 loss at Cincinnati last week. They should put up better numbers against the Eagles this week, but a win would be better. Their defense will be tested, and they may not be up to the task.
11. Dallas Cowboys (2-2) LW: 11
The Cowboys finally reach their bye week and have a great chance to finally get healthy. They are extremely talented, but thin, so they should be tough when healthy.
10. New York Giants (3-1) LW: 13
The Giants just keep winning and a home game against Seattle this week shouldn't change that formula any. They were lucky to escape Arizona with a 31-27 win.
9. Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2) LW: 8
The Steelers were physically defeated by the Texans, and they have a lot of injuries right now. They have struggled on defense this year and their offensive line has been Bear-esque (that's not a compliment). But if Roethlisberger is healthy they should still handle the Titans.
8. New York Jets (2-2) LW: 5
Mark Sanchez looked shell shocked late in the Jets 34-17 loss to the Ravens on Sunday night. The Jets need to get back to running the football. A date with the Patriots may actually help. The Pats defense has been awful and the Jets have handled the New England offense well lately.
7. San Diego Chargers (3-1) LW: 12
The Chargers have not looked impressive this year, but they keep winning. Philip Rivers finally avoided throwing an interception for the first time this year, but this is another team that is having injury problems. They travel to Denver this week to play a classic trap game.
6. Detroit Lions (4-0) LW: 6
The Lions are ranked this low because they have been largely outplayed the last two weeks, though they have come from behind to win both games. Dallas totally dominated the Lions last week, but Detroit escaped with a 34-30 win. The Lions host the Bears on Monday night in what could be a great game.
5. Houston Texans (3-1) LW: 9
The Texans looked great against Pittsburgh last week, winning 17-10. Andre Johnson's hamstring injury is a major concern, but when he returns this team could do some major damage. Their defense is ferocious.
4. New Orleans Saints (3-1) LW: 3
The Saints continue to roll as they easily beat Jacksonville, 23-10. Jimmy Graham is an emerging stud at TE. A trip to Carolina should test their questionable defense.
3. New England Patriots (3-1) LW: 2
The Patriots responded to their loss by returning to running the football in a 31-19 win over the Raiders. Steven Ridley is an emerging force on the ground. Next the Patriots take on their nemesis, the Jets.
2. Baltimore Ravens (3-1) LW: 4
The Ravens defense was awesome on Sunday night, scoring three touchdowns! Joe Flacco needs to be more consistent, but this team looks tough.
1. Green Bay Packers (4-0) LW: 1
The Packers are looking great through four weeks, though they haven't played a good team since opening night. A trip to Atlanta on Sunday night shouldn't be too tough of a test, but the Falcons are sure to have revenge on their minds after the playoff beatdown Green Bay put on them last year.
Friday, September 30, 2011
Week 4 Picks
Week 3 Picks: 8-9 (16-16-1 for the season)
Not touching these games: 1-1 (1-3 for season)
Confidence level low: 3-1 (7-3)
Confidence level medium: 4-1 (5-3-1)
Confidence Level High: 0-5 (2-6)
Lock: 0-1 (1-1)
Week 3 bets placed:
$8.80 to win $8.00 - Notre Dame (-7) over PITTSBURGH: Loss - Score: Notre Dame 15 Pittsburgh 12
$3.30 to win $6.30 - BENGALS (-2.5) over 49ers: Loss - Score: 49ers 13 BENGALS 8
$2.30 to win $4.30 - Patriots (-7) over BILLS: Loss - Score: BILLS 34 Patriots 31
$3.00 to win $6.15 - EAGLES (-9.5) over Giants: Loss - Score: Giants 29 EAGLES 16
$3.30 to win $6.30 - Steelers (-10) over COLTS: Loss - Score: Steelers 23 COLTS 20
$3.00 to win $13.05 - 4 team teaser - Lsu (-0.5) over WEST VIRGINIA, Oregon (-10) over ARIZONA, Patriots (-4) over BILLS, and CHARGERS (-11) over Chiefs: Loss
$2.00 to win $45.00 - 3 team pleaser - Notre Dame (-15) over PITTSBURGH, Lions (-10.5) over VIKINGS, Packers (-10.5) over BEARS: Loss
$3.00 to win $12.75 - 4 team teaser - Lsu (-1) over WEST VIRGINIA, Patriots (-3) over BILLS, PANTHERS (+2) over Jaguars, EAGLES (-5) over Giants: Loss
$2.00 to win $14.60 - 2 team pleaser - Lions (-9.5) over VIKINGS, PANTHERS (-10) over Jaguars: Loss
$2.20 to win $4.20 - 2nd half score - Lions (-4) over VIKINGS: Win $4.20 - 2nd half: Lions 26 VIKINGS 3
$32.90 wagered - $4.20 collected = -$28.70
Week 4 Picks (HOME team in CAPS)
Not touching this game:
Dolphins (+7) over CHARGERS
Never bet on the Chargers in September. Remember that and you'll live a full and happy life. But Miami's defense has been so bad that it's hard to bet against the Chargers either.
Prediction: Chargers 29 Dolphins 24
Confidence Level Low:
Giants (-1) over CARDINALS
After a big road win over the Eagles, the Giants travel to Arizona to take on a Cardinals team that just lost in Seattle. Sounds like an easy win, except that the Cardinals are not as bad as they looked and the Giants played their best game. Still, Manning can torch this weak secondary.
Prediction: Giants 20 Cardinals 17
Panthers (+6) over BEARS
The Bears need to win this game more than the Panthers do, but Chicago needs to find it's running game soon or Jay Cutler isn't going to last much longer. The superior Chicago defense should be the difference in the game, but Cam should make enough plays to beat the spread.
Prediction: Bears 26 Panthers 21
Steelers (+3.5) over TEXANS
The Steelers' offensive line was porous even before the injuries started. They are having major problems keeping Ben Roethlisberger upright. Houston's defensive strength is their pass rush, so expect Pittsburgh to run a lot with Mendenhall and Redman. Houston can run or throw the ball effectively, but the Steelers are always good against the run. Can the Texans make enough plays to finally beat a good team?
Prediction: Texans 24 Steelers 23
Jets (+3.5) over RAVENS
These two teams are very evenly matched. Both supposedly live by the run and their defense, but both have done most of their damage through the air this year. The Jets will come to Baltimore with a bad attitude after losing 34-24 in Oakland last week. There will be more offense than expected, with Flacco and Sanchez both playing well this year so far.
Prediction: Ravens 23 Jets 20
SEAHAWKS (+4.5) over Falcons
Atlanta has not found much rhythm on offense, and their defense has been ordinary at best. Seattle always plays tough at home, and the addition of Sidney Rice seems to have woken their offense up. The Seahawks have a stout run defense that should keep Michael Turner in check.
Prediction: Falcons 16 Seahawks 13
Confidence Level Medium:
Bills (+3) over BENGALS
Who outside of Cincinnati (or Boston) wouldn't love to see the Bills jump to 4-0? This is a winnable game if Buffalo can avoid the trap of underestimating the Bengals. Cedric Benson and A.J. Green can hurt the Bills defense. Fitzpatrick and Fred Jackson are going to need to make some plays against an underrrated Cincy defense.
Prediction: Bills 27 Bengals 20
Lions (+2) over COWBOYS
Dallas has a ton of injuries and depth problems right now, but their top line skill position talent masks this somewhat. Detroit is healthy and they have a beastly defensive line to unleash on Romo and Felix Jones. With Dallas' banged up secondary, Stafford and Johnson could have huge games. Both teams could have a letdown after big division wins.
Prediction: Lions 34 Cowboys 27
PACKERS (-12) over Broncos
The Broncos are a mess on defense and Aaron Rodgers isn't going to help their situation any. Green Bay's defense is improving as well, and they should be able to shut the Denver offense down. McGahee has been a vast improvement over Knowshon Moreno, but it won't be enough to keep this one close.
Prediction: Packers 41 Broncos 21
Patriots (-4.5) over RAIDERS
The Patriots are coming off of a loss where they blew a 21 point lead and Tom Brady threw four interceptions. They will not be a happy bunch. The Raiders beat the Jets last week and look to match up well with New England. After a poor performance, bet on Brady to bounce back.
Prediction: Patriots 31 Raiders 24
RAMS (+2.5) over Redskins
This week's upset special. The Redskins haven't looked good the last two weeks. The Rams got obliterated last week and they know that if they lose this game, they will have an awfully tough time recovering. Washington better not overlook the Rams, who are neither as bad as they were last week nor as bad as their record.
Prediction: Rams 24 Redskins 21
BUCCANEERS (-10) over Colts
This one looks like a Monday night snoozer. The Colts are inept and the Bucs are solid, but unspectacular. Feels like a game where Tampa slowly pulls farther ahead as the game wears on. If LaGarrette Blount doesn't have a good game the Bucs running game may stink all year.
Prediction: Buccaneers 27 Colts 10
Confidence Level High:
Saints (+7) over JAGUARS
The Jaguars defense is not that bad, but the Saints offense is outstanding. New Orleans shouldn't have a problem winning this game. The problem will be containing Maurice Jones-Drew. MJD may rack up the yards and even open up gaps for Gabbert to exploit. But the Saints should be able to keep this one out of reach with their dynamic offense and their defense should be better with a lead.
Prediction: Saints 33 Jaguars 17
EAGLES (-9) over Niners
The talent level of the Philly offense is too high for the 49ers to hold in check. And the 49ers are just not going to put up a lot of points on the east coast. Vick, Jackson, McCoy, and Maclin should have big games.
Prediction: Eagles 27 Niners 9
Titans (Pick 'em) over BROWNS
It's hard to picture either team at 3-1, but the Titans seem more reasonable than Cleveland. Both defenses have been good, but the Tennessee offense has a lot more talent than the Browns offense.
Prediction: Titans 23 Browns 16
Lock of the Week:
Vikings (+2.5) over CHIEFS
It feels a little weird to pick a winless team on the road as my lock, but the Chiefs are awful. Minnesota could easily be 2-1 and their defense should tie the Kansas City offense in knots. Adrian Peterson should be turned loose this week, and this game should be a blowout.
Prediction: Vikings 31 Chiefs 13
Not touching these games: 1-1 (1-3 for season)
Confidence level low: 3-1 (7-3)
Confidence level medium: 4-1 (5-3-1)
Confidence Level High: 0-5 (2-6)
Lock: 0-1 (1-1)
Week 3 bets placed:
$8.80 to win $8.00 - Notre Dame (-7) over PITTSBURGH: Loss - Score: Notre Dame 15 Pittsburgh 12
$3.30 to win $6.30 - BENGALS (-2.5) over 49ers: Loss - Score: 49ers 13 BENGALS 8
$2.30 to win $4.30 - Patriots (-7) over BILLS: Loss - Score: BILLS 34 Patriots 31
$3.00 to win $6.15 - EAGLES (-9.5) over Giants: Loss - Score: Giants 29 EAGLES 16
$3.30 to win $6.30 - Steelers (-10) over COLTS: Loss - Score: Steelers 23 COLTS 20
$3.00 to win $13.05 - 4 team teaser - Lsu (-0.5) over WEST VIRGINIA, Oregon (-10) over ARIZONA, Patriots (-4) over BILLS, and CHARGERS (-11) over Chiefs: Loss
$2.00 to win $45.00 - 3 team pleaser - Notre Dame (-15) over PITTSBURGH, Lions (-10.5) over VIKINGS, Packers (-10.5) over BEARS: Loss
$3.00 to win $12.75 - 4 team teaser - Lsu (-1) over WEST VIRGINIA, Patriots (-3) over BILLS, PANTHERS (+2) over Jaguars, EAGLES (-5) over Giants: Loss
$2.00 to win $14.60 - 2 team pleaser - Lions (-9.5) over VIKINGS, PANTHERS (-10) over Jaguars: Loss
$2.20 to win $4.20 - 2nd half score - Lions (-4) over VIKINGS: Win $4.20 - 2nd half: Lions 26 VIKINGS 3
$32.90 wagered - $4.20 collected = -$28.70
Week 4 Picks (HOME team in CAPS)
Not touching this game:
Dolphins (+7) over CHARGERS
Never bet on the Chargers in September. Remember that and you'll live a full and happy life. But Miami's defense has been so bad that it's hard to bet against the Chargers either.
Prediction: Chargers 29 Dolphins 24
Confidence Level Low:
Giants (-1) over CARDINALS
After a big road win over the Eagles, the Giants travel to Arizona to take on a Cardinals team that just lost in Seattle. Sounds like an easy win, except that the Cardinals are not as bad as they looked and the Giants played their best game. Still, Manning can torch this weak secondary.
Prediction: Giants 20 Cardinals 17
Panthers (+6) over BEARS
The Bears need to win this game more than the Panthers do, but Chicago needs to find it's running game soon or Jay Cutler isn't going to last much longer. The superior Chicago defense should be the difference in the game, but Cam should make enough plays to beat the spread.
Prediction: Bears 26 Panthers 21
Steelers (+3.5) over TEXANS
The Steelers' offensive line was porous even before the injuries started. They are having major problems keeping Ben Roethlisberger upright. Houston's defensive strength is their pass rush, so expect Pittsburgh to run a lot with Mendenhall and Redman. Houston can run or throw the ball effectively, but the Steelers are always good against the run. Can the Texans make enough plays to finally beat a good team?
Prediction: Texans 24 Steelers 23
Jets (+3.5) over RAVENS
These two teams are very evenly matched. Both supposedly live by the run and their defense, but both have done most of their damage through the air this year. The Jets will come to Baltimore with a bad attitude after losing 34-24 in Oakland last week. There will be more offense than expected, with Flacco and Sanchez both playing well this year so far.
Prediction: Ravens 23 Jets 20
SEAHAWKS (+4.5) over Falcons
Atlanta has not found much rhythm on offense, and their defense has been ordinary at best. Seattle always plays tough at home, and the addition of Sidney Rice seems to have woken their offense up. The Seahawks have a stout run defense that should keep Michael Turner in check.
Prediction: Falcons 16 Seahawks 13
Confidence Level Medium:
Bills (+3) over BENGALS
Who outside of Cincinnati (or Boston) wouldn't love to see the Bills jump to 4-0? This is a winnable game if Buffalo can avoid the trap of underestimating the Bengals. Cedric Benson and A.J. Green can hurt the Bills defense. Fitzpatrick and Fred Jackson are going to need to make some plays against an underrrated Cincy defense.
Prediction: Bills 27 Bengals 20
Lions (+2) over COWBOYS
Dallas has a ton of injuries and depth problems right now, but their top line skill position talent masks this somewhat. Detroit is healthy and they have a beastly defensive line to unleash on Romo and Felix Jones. With Dallas' banged up secondary, Stafford and Johnson could have huge games. Both teams could have a letdown after big division wins.
Prediction: Lions 34 Cowboys 27
PACKERS (-12) over Broncos
The Broncos are a mess on defense and Aaron Rodgers isn't going to help their situation any. Green Bay's defense is improving as well, and they should be able to shut the Denver offense down. McGahee has been a vast improvement over Knowshon Moreno, but it won't be enough to keep this one close.
Prediction: Packers 41 Broncos 21
Patriots (-4.5) over RAIDERS
The Patriots are coming off of a loss where they blew a 21 point lead and Tom Brady threw four interceptions. They will not be a happy bunch. The Raiders beat the Jets last week and look to match up well with New England. After a poor performance, bet on Brady to bounce back.
Prediction: Patriots 31 Raiders 24
RAMS (+2.5) over Redskins
This week's upset special. The Redskins haven't looked good the last two weeks. The Rams got obliterated last week and they know that if they lose this game, they will have an awfully tough time recovering. Washington better not overlook the Rams, who are neither as bad as they were last week nor as bad as their record.
Prediction: Rams 24 Redskins 21
BUCCANEERS (-10) over Colts
This one looks like a Monday night snoozer. The Colts are inept and the Bucs are solid, but unspectacular. Feels like a game where Tampa slowly pulls farther ahead as the game wears on. If LaGarrette Blount doesn't have a good game the Bucs running game may stink all year.
Prediction: Buccaneers 27 Colts 10
Confidence Level High:
Saints (+7) over JAGUARS
The Jaguars defense is not that bad, but the Saints offense is outstanding. New Orleans shouldn't have a problem winning this game. The problem will be containing Maurice Jones-Drew. MJD may rack up the yards and even open up gaps for Gabbert to exploit. But the Saints should be able to keep this one out of reach with their dynamic offense and their defense should be better with a lead.
Prediction: Saints 33 Jaguars 17
EAGLES (-9) over Niners
The talent level of the Philly offense is too high for the 49ers to hold in check. And the 49ers are just not going to put up a lot of points on the east coast. Vick, Jackson, McCoy, and Maclin should have big games.
Prediction: Eagles 27 Niners 9
Titans (Pick 'em) over BROWNS
It's hard to picture either team at 3-1, but the Titans seem more reasonable than Cleveland. Both defenses have been good, but the Tennessee offense has a lot more talent than the Browns offense.
Prediction: Titans 23 Browns 16
Lock of the Week:
Vikings (+2.5) over CHIEFS
It feels a little weird to pick a winless team on the road as my lock, but the Chiefs are awful. Minnesota could easily be 2-1 and their defense should tie the Kansas City offense in knots. Adrian Peterson should be turned loose this week, and this game should be a blowout.
Prediction: Vikings 31 Chiefs 13
Tuesday, September 27, 2011
Week 4 Rankings
32. Kansas City Chiefs (0-3) Last week: 32
The Chiefs gave the Chargers a game, but could not get it done. This offense is dreadful; they got zero first downs in the first half. They play at home against Minnesota next week, and at Indy the following week. If they lose both, they will likely have Andrew Luck at QB next year.
31. Indianapolis Colts (0-3) LW: 30
The Colts fought hard, but still mustered almost no offense in a narrow loss to Pittsburgh. Their defense looked better, but they have nobody at QB.
30. Seattle Seahawks (1-2) LW: 31
Seattle is 1-0 at home after beating the Cardinals, 13-10. Their defense is decent, but their offense could still end up being historically bad. A win over Chicago this week would help their stock rise considerably.
29. Cincinnati Bengals (1-2) LW: 26
The Bengals let a golden opportunity pass when they failed to move the ball at all against San Francisco in a 13-8 loss. They could redeem themselves next week if they can win at home against Buffalo.
28. Miami Dolphins (0-3) LW: 28
The Dolphins outgained and outplayed Cleveland, but found themselves on the losing end of a 17-16 scoreline. Henne looks to be much improved this year, but the rest of the Dolphins seem to have regressed.
27. St. Louis Rams (0-3) LW: 21
The Rams have had a brutal opening schedule, and Washington comes to town next week. Getting Amendola and Jackson back would help Bradford out immensely.
26. Minnesota Vikings (0-3) LW: 29
The Vikings somehow blew another second half lead this weekend, losing 26-23 to Detroit after leading 20-0 at halftime. Minnesota has a 54-7 edge in first half scoring this year, but they have been outscored 67-6 in the second half and overtime. They travel to Kansas City for a must win game this week.
25. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2) LW: 23
The Jags have looked punchless on offense for two consecutive weeks. Gabbert will have his growing pains, but he should be competent. MJD has been the lone bright spot so far.
24. Denver Broncos (1-2) LW: 25
The Broncos travel to Green Bay this week. Let's just call it a loss right now. Kyle Orton is already Mr. Unpopular in Denver and things could get ugly if he looks bad at home against San Diego two weeks from now.
23. Arizona Cardinals (1-2) LW: 20
After losing in Seattle last week, the Cardinals come home to face the Giants. It's a good thing they play in the NFC West; they are still in contention. Kolb looked bad against the Seahawks, and he needs to get this team turned around.
22. Cleveland Browns (2-1) LW: 27
The Browns have lost to one bad team and beaten two others. They have a very manageable schedule until
late in the season, when they play Pittsburgh and Baltimore twice each. Colt McCoy has been disappointing after a great preseason. He has been woefully inaccurate, completing 54% of his passes.
21. Carolina Panthers (1-2) LW: 24
The Panthers have looked good in two losses and then won an ugly game over the Jaguars. Their running game and defense have been poor, but Cam Newton has brought fun and excitement into their passing attack.
20. Tennessee Titans (2-1) LW: 17
The loss of Kenny Britt to a season ending knee injury keeps the Titans from advancing as high as they should on this list. The real Chris Johnson needs to show up for them to make any real noise.
19. San Francisco 49ers (2-1) LW: 22
The 49ers didn't look great in beating Cincy, but any win on the road is a good one. This week they will travel to Philadelphia, in what should be a much tougher contest. Alex Smith has been decent in a caretaker role so far.
18. Atlanta Falcons (1-2) LW: 10
What is wrong with the Falcons? After going 13-3 last season, they probably should be 0-3 this year. This week they travel to Seattle in a must win game.
17. Washington Redskins (2-1) LW: 14
Classic DeAngelo Hall. Mouth off all week, get burned on the game's pivotal play, and blame everyone except yourself. Overall the defense was okay against the Cowboys, but the offense needs explosiveness. This week they travel to St. Louis.
16. Chicago Bears (1-2) LW: 13
The Bears defeated the Falcons convincingly on opening day, but have been run off the field by the Saints and Packers in their last two games. Now Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers come to town. The normally tough Bears defense must step up, and the offensive line must protect Cutler better.
15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1) LW: 15
The Buccaneers are decent, but not very exciting. A blowout win at home over the Colts on Monday night might get them onto more people's radar. The running game has been lousy and Freeman has been efficient, but not good. He needs to be good for the Bucs to contend for the division title.
14. Philadelphia Eagles (1-2) LW: 4
The "Dream Team" finds themselves with a losing record through three weeks. They must protect Michael Vick better and start playing defense. The Giants came in to their house and smacked the Eagles 29-16. They need to make a statement this week against the 49ers.
13. New York Giants (2-1) LW: 19
The Giants looked dreadful in the first two weeks, but they figured things out last week when they whipped the Eagles, 29-16. They travel to Arizona this week, hoping to repeat that performance. Their defense looks stout up front and Manning is improving.
12. San Diego Chargers (2-1) LW: 11
Beating the lowly Chiefs 20-17 in San Diego will not get you mentioned among the top ten teams in football. For some bizarre reason this team just cannot figure out how to play well in September.
11. Dallas Cowboys (2-1) LW: 12
The Cowboys got a gutty win on Monday night over Washington, but they still have a long way to go to be elite. Their receivers didn't know where to line up or what routes to run through much of the game. Around weeks 10-11 this team will be very dangerous.
10. Oakland Raiders (2-1) LW: 18
The Raiders overpowered the Jets in a 34-24 win last week, and that is not easy to do. They are very underrated and they will give some teams a lot of problems this year.
9. Houston Texans (2-1) LW: 6
The Texans were two scores up in the fourth quarter in New Orleans and watched it all melt away in a 40-33 loss. A banged up Pittsburgh team comes to town this week. Matt Schaub and company need to get a quality win, and this week looks like the perfect time for it.
8. Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1) LW: 8
If not for their offensive line woes, the Steelers would be above the Lions and Bills. Something is missing with this team. They just are not as good as they have been in recent years.
7. Buffalo Bills (3-0) LW: 16
The Bills came from 21-0 down to spectacularly defeat the Patriots 34-31 last week. Ryan Fitzpatrick has been fantastic so far. They rank behind Detroit only because the Lions have a better defense.
6. Detroit Lions (3-0) LW: 9
The Lions are the latest team to embarrass the Vikings in the second half. They came back from a 20-0 halftime deficit to win 26-23 in overtime. Their pass protection was poor, as Matthew Stafford was harrassed all day, but they made enough plays to win.
5. New York Jets (2-1) LW: 3
The Jets need to find their running game. Sanchez has been good, but they are not as good of a team when they can't pound the ball on the ground. Their defense has underachieved so far this year.
4. Baltimore Ravens (2-1) LW: 7
The Ravens blew out St. Louis and this week they will host the Jets in a huge game. Flacco is inconsistent, but when he is on, he is excellent. Their defense has been excellent as well.
3. New Orleans Saints (2-1) LW: 5
The Saints have played two excellent teams (Packers and Texans) and one very good team (Bears). They finally play a bad team this week (Jaguars), but the game is in Jacksonville. Brees has been outstanding, even without Colston in the lineup. Ingram is improving as well, but the Saints have some problems on defense.
2. New England Patriots (2-1) LW: 1
A shocking loss in Buffalo showed that Tom Brady is mortal after all. The Pats offense has been incredible, aside from Brady's four interceptions last week. But their weakness is on defense, where they have been terrible. If the defense doesn't start playing better they may continue to slide.
1. Green Bay Packers (3-0) LW: 2
The Packers are looking good so far this year. Their major weakness seems to be their running game, but Aaron Rodgers has been so good that it hasn't mattered. There are several awesome offenses in the league this year, but the Packers are the only one that seems to have a defense to match.
The Chiefs gave the Chargers a game, but could not get it done. This offense is dreadful; they got zero first downs in the first half. They play at home against Minnesota next week, and at Indy the following week. If they lose both, they will likely have Andrew Luck at QB next year.
31. Indianapolis Colts (0-3) LW: 30
The Colts fought hard, but still mustered almost no offense in a narrow loss to Pittsburgh. Their defense looked better, but they have nobody at QB.
30. Seattle Seahawks (1-2) LW: 31
Seattle is 1-0 at home after beating the Cardinals, 13-10. Their defense is decent, but their offense could still end up being historically bad. A win over Chicago this week would help their stock rise considerably.
29. Cincinnati Bengals (1-2) LW: 26
The Bengals let a golden opportunity pass when they failed to move the ball at all against San Francisco in a 13-8 loss. They could redeem themselves next week if they can win at home against Buffalo.
28. Miami Dolphins (0-3) LW: 28
The Dolphins outgained and outplayed Cleveland, but found themselves on the losing end of a 17-16 scoreline. Henne looks to be much improved this year, but the rest of the Dolphins seem to have regressed.
27. St. Louis Rams (0-3) LW: 21
The Rams have had a brutal opening schedule, and Washington comes to town next week. Getting Amendola and Jackson back would help Bradford out immensely.
26. Minnesota Vikings (0-3) LW: 29
The Vikings somehow blew another second half lead this weekend, losing 26-23 to Detroit after leading 20-0 at halftime. Minnesota has a 54-7 edge in first half scoring this year, but they have been outscored 67-6 in the second half and overtime. They travel to Kansas City for a must win game this week.
25. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2) LW: 23
The Jags have looked punchless on offense for two consecutive weeks. Gabbert will have his growing pains, but he should be competent. MJD has been the lone bright spot so far.
24. Denver Broncos (1-2) LW: 25
The Broncos travel to Green Bay this week. Let's just call it a loss right now. Kyle Orton is already Mr. Unpopular in Denver and things could get ugly if he looks bad at home against San Diego two weeks from now.
23. Arizona Cardinals (1-2) LW: 20
After losing in Seattle last week, the Cardinals come home to face the Giants. It's a good thing they play in the NFC West; they are still in contention. Kolb looked bad against the Seahawks, and he needs to get this team turned around.
22. Cleveland Browns (2-1) LW: 27
The Browns have lost to one bad team and beaten two others. They have a very manageable schedule until
late in the season, when they play Pittsburgh and Baltimore twice each. Colt McCoy has been disappointing after a great preseason. He has been woefully inaccurate, completing 54% of his passes.
21. Carolina Panthers (1-2) LW: 24
The Panthers have looked good in two losses and then won an ugly game over the Jaguars. Their running game and defense have been poor, but Cam Newton has brought fun and excitement into their passing attack.
20. Tennessee Titans (2-1) LW: 17
The loss of Kenny Britt to a season ending knee injury keeps the Titans from advancing as high as they should on this list. The real Chris Johnson needs to show up for them to make any real noise.
19. San Francisco 49ers (2-1) LW: 22
The 49ers didn't look great in beating Cincy, but any win on the road is a good one. This week they will travel to Philadelphia, in what should be a much tougher contest. Alex Smith has been decent in a caretaker role so far.
18. Atlanta Falcons (1-2) LW: 10
What is wrong with the Falcons? After going 13-3 last season, they probably should be 0-3 this year. This week they travel to Seattle in a must win game.
17. Washington Redskins (2-1) LW: 14
Classic DeAngelo Hall. Mouth off all week, get burned on the game's pivotal play, and blame everyone except yourself. Overall the defense was okay against the Cowboys, but the offense needs explosiveness. This week they travel to St. Louis.
16. Chicago Bears (1-2) LW: 13
The Bears defeated the Falcons convincingly on opening day, but have been run off the field by the Saints and Packers in their last two games. Now Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers come to town. The normally tough Bears defense must step up, and the offensive line must protect Cutler better.
15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1) LW: 15
The Buccaneers are decent, but not very exciting. A blowout win at home over the Colts on Monday night might get them onto more people's radar. The running game has been lousy and Freeman has been efficient, but not good. He needs to be good for the Bucs to contend for the division title.
14. Philadelphia Eagles (1-2) LW: 4
The "Dream Team" finds themselves with a losing record through three weeks. They must protect Michael Vick better and start playing defense. The Giants came in to their house and smacked the Eagles 29-16. They need to make a statement this week against the 49ers.
13. New York Giants (2-1) LW: 19
The Giants looked dreadful in the first two weeks, but they figured things out last week when they whipped the Eagles, 29-16. They travel to Arizona this week, hoping to repeat that performance. Their defense looks stout up front and Manning is improving.
12. San Diego Chargers (2-1) LW: 11
Beating the lowly Chiefs 20-17 in San Diego will not get you mentioned among the top ten teams in football. For some bizarre reason this team just cannot figure out how to play well in September.
11. Dallas Cowboys (2-1) LW: 12
The Cowboys got a gutty win on Monday night over Washington, but they still have a long way to go to be elite. Their receivers didn't know where to line up or what routes to run through much of the game. Around weeks 10-11 this team will be very dangerous.
10. Oakland Raiders (2-1) LW: 18
The Raiders overpowered the Jets in a 34-24 win last week, and that is not easy to do. They are very underrated and they will give some teams a lot of problems this year.
9. Houston Texans (2-1) LW: 6
The Texans were two scores up in the fourth quarter in New Orleans and watched it all melt away in a 40-33 loss. A banged up Pittsburgh team comes to town this week. Matt Schaub and company need to get a quality win, and this week looks like the perfect time for it.
8. Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1) LW: 8
If not for their offensive line woes, the Steelers would be above the Lions and Bills. Something is missing with this team. They just are not as good as they have been in recent years.
7. Buffalo Bills (3-0) LW: 16
The Bills came from 21-0 down to spectacularly defeat the Patriots 34-31 last week. Ryan Fitzpatrick has been fantastic so far. They rank behind Detroit only because the Lions have a better defense.
6. Detroit Lions (3-0) LW: 9
The Lions are the latest team to embarrass the Vikings in the second half. They came back from a 20-0 halftime deficit to win 26-23 in overtime. Their pass protection was poor, as Matthew Stafford was harrassed all day, but they made enough plays to win.
5. New York Jets (2-1) LW: 3
The Jets need to find their running game. Sanchez has been good, but they are not as good of a team when they can't pound the ball on the ground. Their defense has underachieved so far this year.
4. Baltimore Ravens (2-1) LW: 7
The Ravens blew out St. Louis and this week they will host the Jets in a huge game. Flacco is inconsistent, but when he is on, he is excellent. Their defense has been excellent as well.
3. New Orleans Saints (2-1) LW: 5
The Saints have played two excellent teams (Packers and Texans) and one very good team (Bears). They finally play a bad team this week (Jaguars), but the game is in Jacksonville. Brees has been outstanding, even without Colston in the lineup. Ingram is improving as well, but the Saints have some problems on defense.
2. New England Patriots (2-1) LW: 1
A shocking loss in Buffalo showed that Tom Brady is mortal after all. The Pats offense has been incredible, aside from Brady's four interceptions last week. But their weakness is on defense, where they have been terrible. If the defense doesn't start playing better they may continue to slide.
1. Green Bay Packers (3-0) LW: 2
The Packers are looking good so far this year. Their major weakness seems to be their running game, but Aaron Rodgers has been so good that it hasn't mattered. There are several awesome offenses in the league this year, but the Packers are the only one that seems to have a defense to match.
Saturday, September 24, 2011
Week 3 Picks
Last week: 8-7-1
Not touching the game: 0-2
Low Confidence: 4-2
Medium Confidence: 1-2-1
High Confidence: 2-1
Lock: 1-0
Week 2 bets placed:
$15.75 to win $15 - Cowboys (-3) over 49ERS: Push - Score: Cowboys 27 49ERS 24 (OT)
$3.06 to win $3 - Packers (-11) over PANTHERS: Loss - Score: Packers 30 PANTHERS 23
$2 to win $4.10 - STEELERS (-13.5) over Seahawks: Win $4.10 - Score: STEELERS 24 Seahawks 0
$3 to win $13.05 - 4-team 5 point teaser - LIONS (-4) over Chiefs, STEELERS (-10) over Seahawks, PATRIOTS (-2.5) over Chargers, and Cowboys (+2.5) over NINERS: Win $13.05 - Scores: LIONS 48 Chiefs 3, STEELERS 24 Seahawks 0, PATRIOTS 35 Chargers 21, and Cowboys 27 49ERS 24 (OT)
$23.91 wagered - $32.90 collected = +$8.99
Week 3 Picks (HOME team in CAPS)
Not touching these games:
RAIDERS (+3) over Jets
This game can easily swing either way. The Jets have a better team, but the Raiders present matchup problems for their offensive line. I see a tight defensive struggle that could hinge on one big play.
Prediction: Jets 19 Raiders 17 as Janikowski hits the crossbar from 68 yards on the game's last play.
Texans (+4) over SAINTS
This one means more to Houston. If the Texans go into New Orleans and win, they look worthy of a first round bye. If they lose, they are merely the best team in a mediocre division. Of course, the same could be said of the Saints, but they don't have the need to validate themselves like the Texans do. Whichever defense can get more stops will make the difference in this likely shootout.
Prediction: Saints 34 Texans 31
Confidence Level Low:
SEAHAWKS (+3.5) over Cardinals
This looks like a trap game for Arizona, who really is not that good. Seattle may be one of the worst teams in the NFL, but they are typically much better at home. I'm feeling an upset, as Kevin Kolb and Beanie Wells get stymied by an underrated Seahawks defense.
Prediction: Seahawks 20 Cardinals 13
Chiefs (+14.5) over CHARGERS
Going against the grain on this one. After looking abysmal the first two weeks, the Chiefs are coming to San Diego looking desperate. Under Norv Turner the Chargers have started poorly every year, looking content with themselves until losing to a much inferior opponent. I don't think they will lose, but I think they will under perform. The Chiefs are bad, but they are not as bad as they showed the first two weeks.
Prediction: Chargers 23 Chiefs 13
Packers (-3.5) over BEARS
The Bears were dismantled by Green Bay in the NFC Championship in Chicago last year, but they held the Packers in check both times they played in the regular season. This one will probably be close, but ultimately, the Packers have too much talent for the Bears.
Prediction: Packers 27 Bears 20
Falcons (+2) over BUCCANEERS
The Bucs have started very slowly in both games this year before staging late comebacks. These two teams appear to be evenly matched, but I like Atlanta because their running game has been more effective than Tampa's has.
Prediction: Falcons 24 Buccaneers 23
Confidence Level Medium:
Ravens (-4) over RAMS
The Rams have been an enigma so far this year. They played well against the Eagles and then dominated the Giants. Both were blowout losses. Huh? The Ravens were outplayed and beaten by the Titans last week, which should eliminate the possibility of this being a letdown game for them. They will come to play, and they will be too much for the Rams to handle.
Prediction: Ravens 30 Rams 17
PANTHERS (-3.5) over Jaguars
This one may be a blowout victory for Carolina. Jacksonville was awful last week and Cam Newton had another outstanding game, albeit in a seven point loss to Green Bay. The Jags are starting rookie Blaine Gabbert at QB, which appears to help Carolina's cause. However, the Panthers defense is in trouble and the Jaguars are sure to run a ton with Maurice Jones-Drew. Should be a close game.
Prediction: Panthers 27 Jaguars 21
Redskins (+5) over COWBOYS
For as much talent as Dallas has, they are extremely banged up. Tony Romo, Felix Jones, Jason Witten, and Dez Bryant are probably going to play hurt, and Miles Austin will miss the game with a hamstring injury. Throw in their injuries in the secondary and the Redskins have to be licking their chops. Washington should win this game, though I think Dallas is the better team and will end up higher in the standings at season's end.
Prediction: Redskins 26 Cowboys 23
Dolphins (+2.5) over BROWNS
Miami has been a much better road team than a home team over the last year, and this is their road opener. Cleveland has underwhelmed so far this year after coming in with a lot of hype. The Dolphins have more offensive weapons than the Browns, though the Browns defense is the better of the two. Should be a close one.
Prediction: Dolphins 23 Browns 17
TITANS (-7) over Broncos
Tennessee looked good in beating Baltimore last week and Denver just scraped by Cincinnati. The Broncos have major injury problems, not to mention the strength mismatch in the trenches. The Titans are more powerful and should grind out an unspectacular, but convincing victory.
Prediction: Titans 28 Broncos 14
Confidence Level High:
Patriots (-7) over BILLS
Though the New England defense has struggled so far, I think they will come up with a few big plays in Buffalo. The Bills looked great in the second half last week, but it did follow a dismal first half performance. The Patriots offense has looked spectacular at all times so far this season, and the trend should continue this week.
Prediction: Patriots 38 Bills 17
EAGLES (-9) over Giants
The Giants are a mess right now. Philly could probably cover even if Kafka plays, but with Vick back in the lineup, this should be a blowout.
Prediction: Eagles 41 Giants 10
Lions (-3.5) over VIKINGS
Minnesota's passing game has been dreadful and the Lions are stout up front. Detroit's offense may struggle against a decent Vikings defense, but it's hard to see the Vikes doing enough to win.
Prediction: Lions 24 Vikings 13
BENGALS (-2.5) over Niners
Alex Smith has been awful away from home, especially on (or near) the east coast. Both teams are a bit underrated, but until Smith shows me something, I'm picking against him out east. Also, the Niners are badly banged up at WR.
Prediction: Bengals 24 Niners 17
Steelers (-10) over COLTS
The Colts have been dreadful. The Steelers haven't looked great so far this year, but they still look like they are way too much for the old, slow Colts.
Prediction: Steelers 31 Colts 7
Lock of the Week:
Notre Dame (-7) over PITTSBURGH
As I write this Pitt leads 12-7 in the 4th quarter. Great. The Irish have dominated against two good teams and one decent team so far this year, despite being only 1-2. Pitt has given up tons of yards to bad teams, Buffalo and Maine. I saw a blowout here, but I am apparently wrong.
Prediction: Notre Dame 45 Pittsburgh 20
Not touching the game: 0-2
Low Confidence: 4-2
Medium Confidence: 1-2-1
High Confidence: 2-1
Lock: 1-0
Week 2 bets placed:
$15.75 to win $15 - Cowboys (-3) over 49ERS: Push - Score: Cowboys 27 49ERS 24 (OT)
$3.06 to win $3 - Packers (-11) over PANTHERS: Loss - Score: Packers 30 PANTHERS 23
$2 to win $4.10 - STEELERS (-13.5) over Seahawks: Win $4.10 - Score: STEELERS 24 Seahawks 0
$3 to win $13.05 - 4-team 5 point teaser - LIONS (-4) over Chiefs, STEELERS (-10) over Seahawks, PATRIOTS (-2.5) over Chargers, and Cowboys (+2.5) over NINERS: Win $13.05 - Scores: LIONS 48 Chiefs 3, STEELERS 24 Seahawks 0, PATRIOTS 35 Chargers 21, and Cowboys 27 49ERS 24 (OT)
$23.91 wagered - $32.90 collected = +$8.99
Week 3 Picks (HOME team in CAPS)
Not touching these games:
RAIDERS (+3) over Jets
This game can easily swing either way. The Jets have a better team, but the Raiders present matchup problems for their offensive line. I see a tight defensive struggle that could hinge on one big play.
Prediction: Jets 19 Raiders 17 as Janikowski hits the crossbar from 68 yards on the game's last play.
Texans (+4) over SAINTS
This one means more to Houston. If the Texans go into New Orleans and win, they look worthy of a first round bye. If they lose, they are merely the best team in a mediocre division. Of course, the same could be said of the Saints, but they don't have the need to validate themselves like the Texans do. Whichever defense can get more stops will make the difference in this likely shootout.
Prediction: Saints 34 Texans 31
Confidence Level Low:
SEAHAWKS (+3.5) over Cardinals
This looks like a trap game for Arizona, who really is not that good. Seattle may be one of the worst teams in the NFL, but they are typically much better at home. I'm feeling an upset, as Kevin Kolb and Beanie Wells get stymied by an underrated Seahawks defense.
Prediction: Seahawks 20 Cardinals 13
Chiefs (+14.5) over CHARGERS
Going against the grain on this one. After looking abysmal the first two weeks, the Chiefs are coming to San Diego looking desperate. Under Norv Turner the Chargers have started poorly every year, looking content with themselves until losing to a much inferior opponent. I don't think they will lose, but I think they will under perform. The Chiefs are bad, but they are not as bad as they showed the first two weeks.
Prediction: Chargers 23 Chiefs 13
Packers (-3.5) over BEARS
The Bears were dismantled by Green Bay in the NFC Championship in Chicago last year, but they held the Packers in check both times they played in the regular season. This one will probably be close, but ultimately, the Packers have too much talent for the Bears.
Prediction: Packers 27 Bears 20
Falcons (+2) over BUCCANEERS
The Bucs have started very slowly in both games this year before staging late comebacks. These two teams appear to be evenly matched, but I like Atlanta because their running game has been more effective than Tampa's has.
Prediction: Falcons 24 Buccaneers 23
Confidence Level Medium:
Ravens (-4) over RAMS
The Rams have been an enigma so far this year. They played well against the Eagles and then dominated the Giants. Both were blowout losses. Huh? The Ravens were outplayed and beaten by the Titans last week, which should eliminate the possibility of this being a letdown game for them. They will come to play, and they will be too much for the Rams to handle.
Prediction: Ravens 30 Rams 17
PANTHERS (-3.5) over Jaguars
This one may be a blowout victory for Carolina. Jacksonville was awful last week and Cam Newton had another outstanding game, albeit in a seven point loss to Green Bay. The Jags are starting rookie Blaine Gabbert at QB, which appears to help Carolina's cause. However, the Panthers defense is in trouble and the Jaguars are sure to run a ton with Maurice Jones-Drew. Should be a close game.
Prediction: Panthers 27 Jaguars 21
Redskins (+5) over COWBOYS
For as much talent as Dallas has, they are extremely banged up. Tony Romo, Felix Jones, Jason Witten, and Dez Bryant are probably going to play hurt, and Miles Austin will miss the game with a hamstring injury. Throw in their injuries in the secondary and the Redskins have to be licking their chops. Washington should win this game, though I think Dallas is the better team and will end up higher in the standings at season's end.
Prediction: Redskins 26 Cowboys 23
Dolphins (+2.5) over BROWNS
Miami has been a much better road team than a home team over the last year, and this is their road opener. Cleveland has underwhelmed so far this year after coming in with a lot of hype. The Dolphins have more offensive weapons than the Browns, though the Browns defense is the better of the two. Should be a close one.
Prediction: Dolphins 23 Browns 17
TITANS (-7) over Broncos
Tennessee looked good in beating Baltimore last week and Denver just scraped by Cincinnati. The Broncos have major injury problems, not to mention the strength mismatch in the trenches. The Titans are more powerful and should grind out an unspectacular, but convincing victory.
Prediction: Titans 28 Broncos 14
Confidence Level High:
Patriots (-7) over BILLS
Though the New England defense has struggled so far, I think they will come up with a few big plays in Buffalo. The Bills looked great in the second half last week, but it did follow a dismal first half performance. The Patriots offense has looked spectacular at all times so far this season, and the trend should continue this week.
Prediction: Patriots 38 Bills 17
EAGLES (-9) over Giants
The Giants are a mess right now. Philly could probably cover even if Kafka plays, but with Vick back in the lineup, this should be a blowout.
Prediction: Eagles 41 Giants 10
Lions (-3.5) over VIKINGS
Minnesota's passing game has been dreadful and the Lions are stout up front. Detroit's offense may struggle against a decent Vikings defense, but it's hard to see the Vikes doing enough to win.
Prediction: Lions 24 Vikings 13
BENGALS (-2.5) over Niners
Alex Smith has been awful away from home, especially on (or near) the east coast. Both teams are a bit underrated, but until Smith shows me something, I'm picking against him out east. Also, the Niners are badly banged up at WR.
Prediction: Bengals 24 Niners 17
Steelers (-10) over COLTS
The Colts have been dreadful. The Steelers haven't looked great so far this year, but they still look like they are way too much for the old, slow Colts.
Prediction: Steelers 31 Colts 7
Lock of the Week:
Notre Dame (-7) over PITTSBURGH
As I write this Pitt leads 12-7 in the 4th quarter. Great. The Irish have dominated against two good teams and one decent team so far this year, despite being only 1-2. Pitt has given up tons of yards to bad teams, Buffalo and Maine. I saw a blowout here, but I am apparently wrong.
Prediction: Notre Dame 45 Pittsburgh 20
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