Week 5 Picks

Week 4 Picks:  8-8  (24-24-1)

Not touching this game:  0-1  (1-4 for season)
Confidence Low :  3-2  (10-5)
Confidence Medium:  3-3  (8-6-1)
Confidence High :  2-1  (4-7)
Lock of Week:  0-1  (1-2)

Week 4 bets placed:
$3.30 to win $6.30 - Vikings (-1) over CHIEFS:  Loss - Score:  Chiefs 22  Vikings 17
$3.00 to win $6.30 - Lions (Pick) over COWBOYS:  Win $6.30 - Score:  Lions 34  Cowboys 30
$2.08 to win $4.08 - Steelers (+3.5) over TEXANS:  Loss - Score:  Texans 17  Steelers 10
$2.00 to win $4.10 - Bills (-3) over BENGALS:  Loss - Score:  Bengals 23  Bills 20
$2.10 to win $4.10 - Titans (+1) over BROWNS:  Win $4.10 - Score:  Titans 31  Browns 13
$2.20 to win $4.20 - RAMS (+3) over Redskins:  Loss - Score:  Redskins 17  Rams 10
$3.00 to win $13.05 - 4 team teaser:  CHARGERS (-2.5) over Dolphins, Steelers (+8) over TEXANS, Vikings (+2) over CHIEFS, Saints (-5) over JAGUARS:  Loss

$17.68 wagered - $10.40 collected = $7.28 loss

Week 5 Picks (HOME team in CAPS)

Not touching these games:

STEELERS (-3) over Titans
Even if Roethlisberger plays, will he be effective?  Will the Steelers defense struggle without Harrison?  Would Dennis Dixon dominate the game if he has to start?  There are way too many questions and the Titans are too good to take Pittsburgh here.  But I can't take the Titans to win (or lose by less than a FG) in Pittsburgh.

Prediction:  Steelers 21  Titans 17

Jets (+9) over PATRIOTS
Either way you bet this one, you could end up feeling like a fool.  The Jets aren't playing well, while the Patriots are, and the Patriots can blow anyone out on any given day.  However, the Jets almost always play the Pats tough.  Nine points looks a bit too high in this rivalry though.

Prediction:  Patriots 24  Jets 17

Confidence Level Low:

COLTS (-2) over Chiefs
When two teams are this bad, it's hard to predict the outcome.  It seems as if the Colts passing game is slowly coming to life, and their defense has been getting better.  The Chiefs have played better the last couple of weeks, but they are due for a letdown after finally winning a game.

Prediction:  Colts 23  Chiefs 17

VIKINGS (-2.5) over Cardinals
When two teams are this bad...wait have I said this before?  OK, the Vikings have to show up sooner or later, right?  How long can I keep this string of questions going?  The Cardinals can't play defense, which is why the Vikings will get their first win of the season.

Prediction:  Vikings 23  Cardinals 20

Bengals (+2.5) over JAGUARS
Two defensive teams should make for a snoozer for the casual fan.  Cincinnati's offense and defense are both a little better than Jacksonville's.

Prediction:  Bengals 13  Jaguars 10

FALCONS (+6) over Packers
This one is a revenge game for the NFC Divisional playoff last year where the Packers embarrassed the Falcons, 48-21 in the Georgia Dome.  The Packers are a much better team, but they haven't been really challenged lately, and the Falcons will have plenty of motivation.

Prediction:  Packers 31  Falcons 27

Bears (+5) over LIONS
The Lions are not quite as good as people think they are, and the Bears have weapons that can hurt them.  Matt Forte has been spectacular, but he will be utilized more in the passing game than in the running game this week against a tough Detroit defensive front.  The Lions cannot run the ball, and Chicago's defense is strong against the pass.  Should be a close game.

Prediction:  Lions 27  Bears 24

Confidence Level Medium:

Eagles (-2.5) over BILLS
The Eagles are more talented than the Bills, and this is somewhat of a desperation game for them.  Buffalo overachieved in the first three weeks.  They are starting to come back down to earth.

Prediction:  Eagles 34  Bills 24

PANTHERS (+6.5) over Saints
Cam Newton is the king of the backdoor cover, meaning that he drives the Panthers for late TDs to lose by 5, therefore beating the spread, rather than losing by 12, and not covering.  This is a big game for Carolina, and they may catch the Saints a little flat.  This one smells like an upset.

Prediction:  Panthers 38  Saints 34

GIANTS (-9.5) over Seahawks
Always bet on the Seahawks in Seattle and against them anywhere else.  The Giants' pass rush should tie Tavaris in knots.  The Seattle defense is pretty good, but they will be on the field far too long in this one.  This game will start getting the Giants overrated.

Prediction:  Giants 26  Seahawks 6

Buccaneers (+2.5) over NINERS
Josh Freeman feels like he is going to break out this week.  The 49ers are a pretty good team, but the Bucs are better.  Alex Smith has an awful game coming before long, and this could be it.

Prediction:  Buccaneers 24  Niners 17

Confidence Level High:

Raiders (+5.5) over TEXANS
No Andre Johnson or Ben Tate and the Texans are still five and a half point favorites?  Oakland is coming off a tough loss to New England and Houston just won a "We did it" game.  Sounds like a trap game to me.  The Raiders defense is better than they have shown and nobody can totally shut down their running game.  This one is going to be a running fest.

Prediction:  Raiders 17  Texans 14

BRONCOS (+3.5) over Chargers
The Chargers haven't lost to a much inferior team yet this year.  That means they aren't going to play well.  Brandon Lloyd is a handful, and he may come up with a few big plays to win this one at Mile High.

Prediction:  Broncos 26  Chargers 23

Lock of the Week:

Raiders @ Texans - Under 48.5
The Raiders are Texans are going to keep the ball on the ground for most of the game.  Translation: The clock, like the clock in San Dimas, is always running.  Not that many points will be scored as a result, much to the chagrin of Bill and Ted.