Week 3 Picks: 8-9 (16-16-1 for the season)
Not touching these games: 1-1 (1-3 for season)
Confidence level low: 3-1 (7-3)
Confidence level medium: 4-1 (5-3-1)
Confidence Level High: 0-5 (2-6)
Lock: 0-1 (1-1)
Week 3 bets placed:
$8.80 to win $8.00 - Notre Dame (-7) over PITTSBURGH: Loss - Score: Notre Dame 15 Pittsburgh 12
$3.30 to win $6.30 - BENGALS (-2.5) over 49ers: Loss - Score: 49ers 13 BENGALS 8
$2.30 to win $4.30 - Patriots (-7) over BILLS: Loss - Score: BILLS 34 Patriots 31
$3.00 to win $6.15 - EAGLES (-9.5) over Giants: Loss - Score: Giants 29 EAGLES 16
$3.30 to win $6.30 - Steelers (-10) over COLTS: Loss - Score: Steelers 23 COLTS 20
$3.00 to win $13.05 - 4 team teaser - Lsu (-0.5) over WEST VIRGINIA, Oregon (-10) over ARIZONA, Patriots (-4) over BILLS, and CHARGERS (-11) over Chiefs: Loss
$2.00 to win $45.00 - 3 team pleaser - Notre Dame (-15) over PITTSBURGH, Lions (-10.5) over VIKINGS, Packers (-10.5) over BEARS: Loss
$3.00 to win $12.75 - 4 team teaser - Lsu (-1) over WEST VIRGINIA, Patriots (-3) over BILLS, PANTHERS (+2) over Jaguars, EAGLES (-5) over Giants: Loss
$2.00 to win $14.60 - 2 team pleaser - Lions (-9.5) over VIKINGS, PANTHERS (-10) over Jaguars: Loss
$2.20 to win $4.20 - 2nd half score - Lions (-4) over VIKINGS: Win $4.20 - 2nd half: Lions 26 VIKINGS 3
$32.90 wagered - $4.20 collected = -$28.70
Week 4 Picks (HOME team in CAPS)
Not touching this game:
Dolphins (+7) over CHARGERS
Never bet on the Chargers in September. Remember that and you'll live a full and happy life. But Miami's defense has been so bad that it's hard to bet against the Chargers either.
Prediction: Chargers 29 Dolphins 24
Confidence Level Low:
Giants (-1) over CARDINALS
After a big road win over the Eagles, the Giants travel to Arizona to take on a Cardinals team that just lost in Seattle. Sounds like an easy win, except that the Cardinals are not as bad as they looked and the Giants played their best game. Still, Manning can torch this weak secondary.
Prediction: Giants 20 Cardinals 17
Panthers (+6) over BEARS
The Bears need to win this game more than the Panthers do, but Chicago needs to find it's running game soon or Jay Cutler isn't going to last much longer. The superior Chicago defense should be the difference in the game, but Cam should make enough plays to beat the spread.
Prediction: Bears 26 Panthers 21
Steelers (+3.5) over TEXANS
The Steelers' offensive line was porous even before the injuries started. They are having major problems keeping Ben Roethlisberger upright. Houston's defensive strength is their pass rush, so expect Pittsburgh to run a lot with Mendenhall and Redman. Houston can run or throw the ball effectively, but the Steelers are always good against the run. Can the Texans make enough plays to finally beat a good team?
Prediction: Texans 24 Steelers 23
Jets (+3.5) over RAVENS
These two teams are very evenly matched. Both supposedly live by the run and their defense, but both have done most of their damage through the air this year. The Jets will come to Baltimore with a bad attitude after losing 34-24 in Oakland last week. There will be more offense than expected, with Flacco and Sanchez both playing well this year so far.
Prediction: Ravens 23 Jets 20
SEAHAWKS (+4.5) over Falcons
Atlanta has not found much rhythm on offense, and their defense has been ordinary at best. Seattle always plays tough at home, and the addition of Sidney Rice seems to have woken their offense up. The Seahawks have a stout run defense that should keep Michael Turner in check.
Prediction: Falcons 16 Seahawks 13
Confidence Level Medium:
Bills (+3) over BENGALS
Who outside of Cincinnati (or Boston) wouldn't love to see the Bills jump to 4-0? This is a winnable game if Buffalo can avoid the trap of underestimating the Bengals. Cedric Benson and A.J. Green can hurt the Bills defense. Fitzpatrick and Fred Jackson are going to need to make some plays against an underrrated Cincy defense.
Prediction: Bills 27 Bengals 20
Lions (+2) over COWBOYS
Dallas has a ton of injuries and depth problems right now, but their top line skill position talent masks this somewhat. Detroit is healthy and they have a beastly defensive line to unleash on Romo and Felix Jones. With Dallas' banged up secondary, Stafford and Johnson could have huge games. Both teams could have a letdown after big division wins.
Prediction: Lions 34 Cowboys 27
PACKERS (-12) over Broncos
The Broncos are a mess on defense and Aaron Rodgers isn't going to help their situation any. Green Bay's defense is improving as well, and they should be able to shut the Denver offense down. McGahee has been a vast improvement over Knowshon Moreno, but it won't be enough to keep this one close.
Prediction: Packers 41 Broncos 21
Patriots (-4.5) over RAIDERS
The Patriots are coming off of a loss where they blew a 21 point lead and Tom Brady threw four interceptions. They will not be a happy bunch. The Raiders beat the Jets last week and look to match up well with New England. After a poor performance, bet on Brady to bounce back.
Prediction: Patriots 31 Raiders 24
RAMS (+2.5) over Redskins
This week's upset special. The Redskins haven't looked good the last two weeks. The Rams got obliterated last week and they know that if they lose this game, they will have an awfully tough time recovering. Washington better not overlook the Rams, who are neither as bad as they were last week nor as bad as their record.
Prediction: Rams 24 Redskins 21
BUCCANEERS (-10) over Colts
This one looks like a Monday night snoozer. The Colts are inept and the Bucs are solid, but unspectacular. Feels like a game where Tampa slowly pulls farther ahead as the game wears on. If LaGarrette Blount doesn't have a good game the Bucs running game may stink all year.
Prediction: Buccaneers 27 Colts 10
Confidence Level High:
Saints (+7) over JAGUARS
The Jaguars defense is not that bad, but the Saints offense is outstanding. New Orleans shouldn't have a problem winning this game. The problem will be containing Maurice Jones-Drew. MJD may rack up the yards and even open up gaps for Gabbert to exploit. But the Saints should be able to keep this one out of reach with their dynamic offense and their defense should be better with a lead.
Prediction: Saints 33 Jaguars 17
EAGLES (-9) over Niners
The talent level of the Philly offense is too high for the 49ers to hold in check. And the 49ers are just not going to put up a lot of points on the east coast. Vick, Jackson, McCoy, and Maclin should have big games.
Prediction: Eagles 27 Niners 9
Titans (Pick 'em) over BROWNS
It's hard to picture either team at 3-1, but the Titans seem more reasonable than Cleveland. Both defenses have been good, but the Tennessee offense has a lot more talent than the Browns offense.
Prediction: Titans 23 Browns 16
Lock of the Week:
Vikings (+2.5) over CHIEFS
It feels a little weird to pick a winless team on the road as my lock, but the Chiefs are awful. Minnesota could easily be 2-1 and their defense should tie the Kansas City offense in knots. Adrian Peterson should be turned loose this week, and this game should be a blowout.
Prediction: Vikings 31 Chiefs 13
Friday, September 30, 2011
Tuesday, September 27, 2011
Week 4 Rankings
32. Kansas City Chiefs (0-3) Last week: 32
The Chiefs gave the Chargers a game, but could not get it done. This offense is dreadful; they got zero first downs in the first half. They play at home against Minnesota next week, and at Indy the following week. If they lose both, they will likely have Andrew Luck at QB next year.
31. Indianapolis Colts (0-3) LW: 30
The Colts fought hard, but still mustered almost no offense in a narrow loss to Pittsburgh. Their defense looked better, but they have nobody at QB.
30. Seattle Seahawks (1-2) LW: 31
Seattle is 1-0 at home after beating the Cardinals, 13-10. Their defense is decent, but their offense could still end up being historically bad. A win over Chicago this week would help their stock rise considerably.
29. Cincinnati Bengals (1-2) LW: 26
The Bengals let a golden opportunity pass when they failed to move the ball at all against San Francisco in a 13-8 loss. They could redeem themselves next week if they can win at home against Buffalo.
28. Miami Dolphins (0-3) LW: 28
The Dolphins outgained and outplayed Cleveland, but found themselves on the losing end of a 17-16 scoreline. Henne looks to be much improved this year, but the rest of the Dolphins seem to have regressed.
27. St. Louis Rams (0-3) LW: 21
The Rams have had a brutal opening schedule, and Washington comes to town next week. Getting Amendola and Jackson back would help Bradford out immensely.
26. Minnesota Vikings (0-3) LW: 29
The Vikings somehow blew another second half lead this weekend, losing 26-23 to Detroit after leading 20-0 at halftime. Minnesota has a 54-7 edge in first half scoring this year, but they have been outscored 67-6 in the second half and overtime. They travel to Kansas City for a must win game this week.
25. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2) LW: 23
The Jags have looked punchless on offense for two consecutive weeks. Gabbert will have his growing pains, but he should be competent. MJD has been the lone bright spot so far.
24. Denver Broncos (1-2) LW: 25
The Broncos travel to Green Bay this week. Let's just call it a loss right now. Kyle Orton is already Mr. Unpopular in Denver and things could get ugly if he looks bad at home against San Diego two weeks from now.
23. Arizona Cardinals (1-2) LW: 20
After losing in Seattle last week, the Cardinals come home to face the Giants. It's a good thing they play in the NFC West; they are still in contention. Kolb looked bad against the Seahawks, and he needs to get this team turned around.
22. Cleveland Browns (2-1) LW: 27
The Browns have lost to one bad team and beaten two others. They have a very manageable schedule until
late in the season, when they play Pittsburgh and Baltimore twice each. Colt McCoy has been disappointing after a great preseason. He has been woefully inaccurate, completing 54% of his passes.
21. Carolina Panthers (1-2) LW: 24
The Panthers have looked good in two losses and then won an ugly game over the Jaguars. Their running game and defense have been poor, but Cam Newton has brought fun and excitement into their passing attack.
20. Tennessee Titans (2-1) LW: 17
The loss of Kenny Britt to a season ending knee injury keeps the Titans from advancing as high as they should on this list. The real Chris Johnson needs to show up for them to make any real noise.
19. San Francisco 49ers (2-1) LW: 22
The 49ers didn't look great in beating Cincy, but any win on the road is a good one. This week they will travel to Philadelphia, in what should be a much tougher contest. Alex Smith has been decent in a caretaker role so far.
18. Atlanta Falcons (1-2) LW: 10
What is wrong with the Falcons? After going 13-3 last season, they probably should be 0-3 this year. This week they travel to Seattle in a must win game.
17. Washington Redskins (2-1) LW: 14
Classic DeAngelo Hall. Mouth off all week, get burned on the game's pivotal play, and blame everyone except yourself. Overall the defense was okay against the Cowboys, but the offense needs explosiveness. This week they travel to St. Louis.
16. Chicago Bears (1-2) LW: 13
The Bears defeated the Falcons convincingly on opening day, but have been run off the field by the Saints and Packers in their last two games. Now Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers come to town. The normally tough Bears defense must step up, and the offensive line must protect Cutler better.
15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1) LW: 15
The Buccaneers are decent, but not very exciting. A blowout win at home over the Colts on Monday night might get them onto more people's radar. The running game has been lousy and Freeman has been efficient, but not good. He needs to be good for the Bucs to contend for the division title.
14. Philadelphia Eagles (1-2) LW: 4
The "Dream Team" finds themselves with a losing record through three weeks. They must protect Michael Vick better and start playing defense. The Giants came in to their house and smacked the Eagles 29-16. They need to make a statement this week against the 49ers.
13. New York Giants (2-1) LW: 19
The Giants looked dreadful in the first two weeks, but they figured things out last week when they whipped the Eagles, 29-16. They travel to Arizona this week, hoping to repeat that performance. Their defense looks stout up front and Manning is improving.
12. San Diego Chargers (2-1) LW: 11
Beating the lowly Chiefs 20-17 in San Diego will not get you mentioned among the top ten teams in football. For some bizarre reason this team just cannot figure out how to play well in September.
11. Dallas Cowboys (2-1) LW: 12
The Cowboys got a gutty win on Monday night over Washington, but they still have a long way to go to be elite. Their receivers didn't know where to line up or what routes to run through much of the game. Around weeks 10-11 this team will be very dangerous.
10. Oakland Raiders (2-1) LW: 18
The Raiders overpowered the Jets in a 34-24 win last week, and that is not easy to do. They are very underrated and they will give some teams a lot of problems this year.
9. Houston Texans (2-1) LW: 6
The Texans were two scores up in the fourth quarter in New Orleans and watched it all melt away in a 40-33 loss. A banged up Pittsburgh team comes to town this week. Matt Schaub and company need to get a quality win, and this week looks like the perfect time for it.
8. Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1) LW: 8
If not for their offensive line woes, the Steelers would be above the Lions and Bills. Something is missing with this team. They just are not as good as they have been in recent years.
7. Buffalo Bills (3-0) LW: 16
The Bills came from 21-0 down to spectacularly defeat the Patriots 34-31 last week. Ryan Fitzpatrick has been fantastic so far. They rank behind Detroit only because the Lions have a better defense.
6. Detroit Lions (3-0) LW: 9
The Lions are the latest team to embarrass the Vikings in the second half. They came back from a 20-0 halftime deficit to win 26-23 in overtime. Their pass protection was poor, as Matthew Stafford was harrassed all day, but they made enough plays to win.
5. New York Jets (2-1) LW: 3
The Jets need to find their running game. Sanchez has been good, but they are not as good of a team when they can't pound the ball on the ground. Their defense has underachieved so far this year.
4. Baltimore Ravens (2-1) LW: 7
The Ravens blew out St. Louis and this week they will host the Jets in a huge game. Flacco is inconsistent, but when he is on, he is excellent. Their defense has been excellent as well.
3. New Orleans Saints (2-1) LW: 5
The Saints have played two excellent teams (Packers and Texans) and one very good team (Bears). They finally play a bad team this week (Jaguars), but the game is in Jacksonville. Brees has been outstanding, even without Colston in the lineup. Ingram is improving as well, but the Saints have some problems on defense.
2. New England Patriots (2-1) LW: 1
A shocking loss in Buffalo showed that Tom Brady is mortal after all. The Pats offense has been incredible, aside from Brady's four interceptions last week. But their weakness is on defense, where they have been terrible. If the defense doesn't start playing better they may continue to slide.
1. Green Bay Packers (3-0) LW: 2
The Packers are looking good so far this year. Their major weakness seems to be their running game, but Aaron Rodgers has been so good that it hasn't mattered. There are several awesome offenses in the league this year, but the Packers are the only one that seems to have a defense to match.
The Chiefs gave the Chargers a game, but could not get it done. This offense is dreadful; they got zero first downs in the first half. They play at home against Minnesota next week, and at Indy the following week. If they lose both, they will likely have Andrew Luck at QB next year.
31. Indianapolis Colts (0-3) LW: 30
The Colts fought hard, but still mustered almost no offense in a narrow loss to Pittsburgh. Their defense looked better, but they have nobody at QB.
30. Seattle Seahawks (1-2) LW: 31
Seattle is 1-0 at home after beating the Cardinals, 13-10. Their defense is decent, but their offense could still end up being historically bad. A win over Chicago this week would help their stock rise considerably.
29. Cincinnati Bengals (1-2) LW: 26
The Bengals let a golden opportunity pass when they failed to move the ball at all against San Francisco in a 13-8 loss. They could redeem themselves next week if they can win at home against Buffalo.
28. Miami Dolphins (0-3) LW: 28
The Dolphins outgained and outplayed Cleveland, but found themselves on the losing end of a 17-16 scoreline. Henne looks to be much improved this year, but the rest of the Dolphins seem to have regressed.
27. St. Louis Rams (0-3) LW: 21
The Rams have had a brutal opening schedule, and Washington comes to town next week. Getting Amendola and Jackson back would help Bradford out immensely.
26. Minnesota Vikings (0-3) LW: 29
The Vikings somehow blew another second half lead this weekend, losing 26-23 to Detroit after leading 20-0 at halftime. Minnesota has a 54-7 edge in first half scoring this year, but they have been outscored 67-6 in the second half and overtime. They travel to Kansas City for a must win game this week.
25. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2) LW: 23
The Jags have looked punchless on offense for two consecutive weeks. Gabbert will have his growing pains, but he should be competent. MJD has been the lone bright spot so far.
24. Denver Broncos (1-2) LW: 25
The Broncos travel to Green Bay this week. Let's just call it a loss right now. Kyle Orton is already Mr. Unpopular in Denver and things could get ugly if he looks bad at home against San Diego two weeks from now.
23. Arizona Cardinals (1-2) LW: 20
After losing in Seattle last week, the Cardinals come home to face the Giants. It's a good thing they play in the NFC West; they are still in contention. Kolb looked bad against the Seahawks, and he needs to get this team turned around.
22. Cleveland Browns (2-1) LW: 27
The Browns have lost to one bad team and beaten two others. They have a very manageable schedule until
late in the season, when they play Pittsburgh and Baltimore twice each. Colt McCoy has been disappointing after a great preseason. He has been woefully inaccurate, completing 54% of his passes.
21. Carolina Panthers (1-2) LW: 24
The Panthers have looked good in two losses and then won an ugly game over the Jaguars. Their running game and defense have been poor, but Cam Newton has brought fun and excitement into their passing attack.
20. Tennessee Titans (2-1) LW: 17
The loss of Kenny Britt to a season ending knee injury keeps the Titans from advancing as high as they should on this list. The real Chris Johnson needs to show up for them to make any real noise.
19. San Francisco 49ers (2-1) LW: 22
The 49ers didn't look great in beating Cincy, but any win on the road is a good one. This week they will travel to Philadelphia, in what should be a much tougher contest. Alex Smith has been decent in a caretaker role so far.
18. Atlanta Falcons (1-2) LW: 10
What is wrong with the Falcons? After going 13-3 last season, they probably should be 0-3 this year. This week they travel to Seattle in a must win game.
17. Washington Redskins (2-1) LW: 14
Classic DeAngelo Hall. Mouth off all week, get burned on the game's pivotal play, and blame everyone except yourself. Overall the defense was okay against the Cowboys, but the offense needs explosiveness. This week they travel to St. Louis.
16. Chicago Bears (1-2) LW: 13
The Bears defeated the Falcons convincingly on opening day, but have been run off the field by the Saints and Packers in their last two games. Now Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers come to town. The normally tough Bears defense must step up, and the offensive line must protect Cutler better.
15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1) LW: 15
The Buccaneers are decent, but not very exciting. A blowout win at home over the Colts on Monday night might get them onto more people's radar. The running game has been lousy and Freeman has been efficient, but not good. He needs to be good for the Bucs to contend for the division title.
14. Philadelphia Eagles (1-2) LW: 4
The "Dream Team" finds themselves with a losing record through three weeks. They must protect Michael Vick better and start playing defense. The Giants came in to their house and smacked the Eagles 29-16. They need to make a statement this week against the 49ers.
13. New York Giants (2-1) LW: 19
The Giants looked dreadful in the first two weeks, but they figured things out last week when they whipped the Eagles, 29-16. They travel to Arizona this week, hoping to repeat that performance. Their defense looks stout up front and Manning is improving.
12. San Diego Chargers (2-1) LW: 11
Beating the lowly Chiefs 20-17 in San Diego will not get you mentioned among the top ten teams in football. For some bizarre reason this team just cannot figure out how to play well in September.
11. Dallas Cowboys (2-1) LW: 12
The Cowboys got a gutty win on Monday night over Washington, but they still have a long way to go to be elite. Their receivers didn't know where to line up or what routes to run through much of the game. Around weeks 10-11 this team will be very dangerous.
10. Oakland Raiders (2-1) LW: 18
The Raiders overpowered the Jets in a 34-24 win last week, and that is not easy to do. They are very underrated and they will give some teams a lot of problems this year.
9. Houston Texans (2-1) LW: 6
The Texans were two scores up in the fourth quarter in New Orleans and watched it all melt away in a 40-33 loss. A banged up Pittsburgh team comes to town this week. Matt Schaub and company need to get a quality win, and this week looks like the perfect time for it.
8. Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1) LW: 8
If not for their offensive line woes, the Steelers would be above the Lions and Bills. Something is missing with this team. They just are not as good as they have been in recent years.
7. Buffalo Bills (3-0) LW: 16
The Bills came from 21-0 down to spectacularly defeat the Patriots 34-31 last week. Ryan Fitzpatrick has been fantastic so far. They rank behind Detroit only because the Lions have a better defense.
6. Detroit Lions (3-0) LW: 9
The Lions are the latest team to embarrass the Vikings in the second half. They came back from a 20-0 halftime deficit to win 26-23 in overtime. Their pass protection was poor, as Matthew Stafford was harrassed all day, but they made enough plays to win.
5. New York Jets (2-1) LW: 3
The Jets need to find their running game. Sanchez has been good, but they are not as good of a team when they can't pound the ball on the ground. Their defense has underachieved so far this year.
4. Baltimore Ravens (2-1) LW: 7
The Ravens blew out St. Louis and this week they will host the Jets in a huge game. Flacco is inconsistent, but when he is on, he is excellent. Their defense has been excellent as well.
3. New Orleans Saints (2-1) LW: 5
The Saints have played two excellent teams (Packers and Texans) and one very good team (Bears). They finally play a bad team this week (Jaguars), but the game is in Jacksonville. Brees has been outstanding, even without Colston in the lineup. Ingram is improving as well, but the Saints have some problems on defense.
2. New England Patriots (2-1) LW: 1
A shocking loss in Buffalo showed that Tom Brady is mortal after all. The Pats offense has been incredible, aside from Brady's four interceptions last week. But their weakness is on defense, where they have been terrible. If the defense doesn't start playing better they may continue to slide.
1. Green Bay Packers (3-0) LW: 2
The Packers are looking good so far this year. Their major weakness seems to be their running game, but Aaron Rodgers has been so good that it hasn't mattered. There are several awesome offenses in the league this year, but the Packers are the only one that seems to have a defense to match.
Saturday, September 24, 2011
Week 3 Picks
Last week: 8-7-1
Not touching the game: 0-2
Low Confidence: 4-2
Medium Confidence: 1-2-1
High Confidence: 2-1
Lock: 1-0
Week 2 bets placed:
$15.75 to win $15 - Cowboys (-3) over 49ERS: Push - Score: Cowboys 27 49ERS 24 (OT)
$3.06 to win $3 - Packers (-11) over PANTHERS: Loss - Score: Packers 30 PANTHERS 23
$2 to win $4.10 - STEELERS (-13.5) over Seahawks: Win $4.10 - Score: STEELERS 24 Seahawks 0
$3 to win $13.05 - 4-team 5 point teaser - LIONS (-4) over Chiefs, STEELERS (-10) over Seahawks, PATRIOTS (-2.5) over Chargers, and Cowboys (+2.5) over NINERS: Win $13.05 - Scores: LIONS 48 Chiefs 3, STEELERS 24 Seahawks 0, PATRIOTS 35 Chargers 21, and Cowboys 27 49ERS 24 (OT)
$23.91 wagered - $32.90 collected = +$8.99
Week 3 Picks (HOME team in CAPS)
Not touching these games:
RAIDERS (+3) over Jets
This game can easily swing either way. The Jets have a better team, but the Raiders present matchup problems for their offensive line. I see a tight defensive struggle that could hinge on one big play.
Prediction: Jets 19 Raiders 17 as Janikowski hits the crossbar from 68 yards on the game's last play.
Texans (+4) over SAINTS
This one means more to Houston. If the Texans go into New Orleans and win, they look worthy of a first round bye. If they lose, they are merely the best team in a mediocre division. Of course, the same could be said of the Saints, but they don't have the need to validate themselves like the Texans do. Whichever defense can get more stops will make the difference in this likely shootout.
Prediction: Saints 34 Texans 31
Confidence Level Low:
SEAHAWKS (+3.5) over Cardinals
This looks like a trap game for Arizona, who really is not that good. Seattle may be one of the worst teams in the NFL, but they are typically much better at home. I'm feeling an upset, as Kevin Kolb and Beanie Wells get stymied by an underrated Seahawks defense.
Prediction: Seahawks 20 Cardinals 13
Chiefs (+14.5) over CHARGERS
Going against the grain on this one. After looking abysmal the first two weeks, the Chiefs are coming to San Diego looking desperate. Under Norv Turner the Chargers have started poorly every year, looking content with themselves until losing to a much inferior opponent. I don't think they will lose, but I think they will under perform. The Chiefs are bad, but they are not as bad as they showed the first two weeks.
Prediction: Chargers 23 Chiefs 13
Packers (-3.5) over BEARS
The Bears were dismantled by Green Bay in the NFC Championship in Chicago last year, but they held the Packers in check both times they played in the regular season. This one will probably be close, but ultimately, the Packers have too much talent for the Bears.
Prediction: Packers 27 Bears 20
Falcons (+2) over BUCCANEERS
The Bucs have started very slowly in both games this year before staging late comebacks. These two teams appear to be evenly matched, but I like Atlanta because their running game has been more effective than Tampa's has.
Prediction: Falcons 24 Buccaneers 23
Confidence Level Medium:
Ravens (-4) over RAMS
The Rams have been an enigma so far this year. They played well against the Eagles and then dominated the Giants. Both were blowout losses. Huh? The Ravens were outplayed and beaten by the Titans last week, which should eliminate the possibility of this being a letdown game for them. They will come to play, and they will be too much for the Rams to handle.
Prediction: Ravens 30 Rams 17
PANTHERS (-3.5) over Jaguars
This one may be a blowout victory for Carolina. Jacksonville was awful last week and Cam Newton had another outstanding game, albeit in a seven point loss to Green Bay. The Jags are starting rookie Blaine Gabbert at QB, which appears to help Carolina's cause. However, the Panthers defense is in trouble and the Jaguars are sure to run a ton with Maurice Jones-Drew. Should be a close game.
Prediction: Panthers 27 Jaguars 21
Redskins (+5) over COWBOYS
For as much talent as Dallas has, they are extremely banged up. Tony Romo, Felix Jones, Jason Witten, and Dez Bryant are probably going to play hurt, and Miles Austin will miss the game with a hamstring injury. Throw in their injuries in the secondary and the Redskins have to be licking their chops. Washington should win this game, though I think Dallas is the better team and will end up higher in the standings at season's end.
Prediction: Redskins 26 Cowboys 23
Dolphins (+2.5) over BROWNS
Miami has been a much better road team than a home team over the last year, and this is their road opener. Cleveland has underwhelmed so far this year after coming in with a lot of hype. The Dolphins have more offensive weapons than the Browns, though the Browns defense is the better of the two. Should be a close one.
Prediction: Dolphins 23 Browns 17
TITANS (-7) over Broncos
Tennessee looked good in beating Baltimore last week and Denver just scraped by Cincinnati. The Broncos have major injury problems, not to mention the strength mismatch in the trenches. The Titans are more powerful and should grind out an unspectacular, but convincing victory.
Prediction: Titans 28 Broncos 14
Confidence Level High:
Patriots (-7) over BILLS
Though the New England defense has struggled so far, I think they will come up with a few big plays in Buffalo. The Bills looked great in the second half last week, but it did follow a dismal first half performance. The Patriots offense has looked spectacular at all times so far this season, and the trend should continue this week.
Prediction: Patriots 38 Bills 17
EAGLES (-9) over Giants
The Giants are a mess right now. Philly could probably cover even if Kafka plays, but with Vick back in the lineup, this should be a blowout.
Prediction: Eagles 41 Giants 10
Lions (-3.5) over VIKINGS
Minnesota's passing game has been dreadful and the Lions are stout up front. Detroit's offense may struggle against a decent Vikings defense, but it's hard to see the Vikes doing enough to win.
Prediction: Lions 24 Vikings 13
BENGALS (-2.5) over Niners
Alex Smith has been awful away from home, especially on (or near) the east coast. Both teams are a bit underrated, but until Smith shows me something, I'm picking against him out east. Also, the Niners are badly banged up at WR.
Prediction: Bengals 24 Niners 17
Steelers (-10) over COLTS
The Colts have been dreadful. The Steelers haven't looked great so far this year, but they still look like they are way too much for the old, slow Colts.
Prediction: Steelers 31 Colts 7
Lock of the Week:
Notre Dame (-7) over PITTSBURGH
As I write this Pitt leads 12-7 in the 4th quarter. Great. The Irish have dominated against two good teams and one decent team so far this year, despite being only 1-2. Pitt has given up tons of yards to bad teams, Buffalo and Maine. I saw a blowout here, but I am apparently wrong.
Prediction: Notre Dame 45 Pittsburgh 20
Not touching the game: 0-2
Low Confidence: 4-2
Medium Confidence: 1-2-1
High Confidence: 2-1
Lock: 1-0
Week 2 bets placed:
$15.75 to win $15 - Cowboys (-3) over 49ERS: Push - Score: Cowboys 27 49ERS 24 (OT)
$3.06 to win $3 - Packers (-11) over PANTHERS: Loss - Score: Packers 30 PANTHERS 23
$2 to win $4.10 - STEELERS (-13.5) over Seahawks: Win $4.10 - Score: STEELERS 24 Seahawks 0
$3 to win $13.05 - 4-team 5 point teaser - LIONS (-4) over Chiefs, STEELERS (-10) over Seahawks, PATRIOTS (-2.5) over Chargers, and Cowboys (+2.5) over NINERS: Win $13.05 - Scores: LIONS 48 Chiefs 3, STEELERS 24 Seahawks 0, PATRIOTS 35 Chargers 21, and Cowboys 27 49ERS 24 (OT)
$23.91 wagered - $32.90 collected = +$8.99
Week 3 Picks (HOME team in CAPS)
Not touching these games:
RAIDERS (+3) over Jets
This game can easily swing either way. The Jets have a better team, but the Raiders present matchup problems for their offensive line. I see a tight defensive struggle that could hinge on one big play.
Prediction: Jets 19 Raiders 17 as Janikowski hits the crossbar from 68 yards on the game's last play.
Texans (+4) over SAINTS
This one means more to Houston. If the Texans go into New Orleans and win, they look worthy of a first round bye. If they lose, they are merely the best team in a mediocre division. Of course, the same could be said of the Saints, but they don't have the need to validate themselves like the Texans do. Whichever defense can get more stops will make the difference in this likely shootout.
Prediction: Saints 34 Texans 31
Confidence Level Low:
SEAHAWKS (+3.5) over Cardinals
This looks like a trap game for Arizona, who really is not that good. Seattle may be one of the worst teams in the NFL, but they are typically much better at home. I'm feeling an upset, as Kevin Kolb and Beanie Wells get stymied by an underrated Seahawks defense.
Prediction: Seahawks 20 Cardinals 13
Chiefs (+14.5) over CHARGERS
Going against the grain on this one. After looking abysmal the first two weeks, the Chiefs are coming to San Diego looking desperate. Under Norv Turner the Chargers have started poorly every year, looking content with themselves until losing to a much inferior opponent. I don't think they will lose, but I think they will under perform. The Chiefs are bad, but they are not as bad as they showed the first two weeks.
Prediction: Chargers 23 Chiefs 13
Packers (-3.5) over BEARS
The Bears were dismantled by Green Bay in the NFC Championship in Chicago last year, but they held the Packers in check both times they played in the regular season. This one will probably be close, but ultimately, the Packers have too much talent for the Bears.
Prediction: Packers 27 Bears 20
Falcons (+2) over BUCCANEERS
The Bucs have started very slowly in both games this year before staging late comebacks. These two teams appear to be evenly matched, but I like Atlanta because their running game has been more effective than Tampa's has.
Prediction: Falcons 24 Buccaneers 23
Confidence Level Medium:
Ravens (-4) over RAMS
The Rams have been an enigma so far this year. They played well against the Eagles and then dominated the Giants. Both were blowout losses. Huh? The Ravens were outplayed and beaten by the Titans last week, which should eliminate the possibility of this being a letdown game for them. They will come to play, and they will be too much for the Rams to handle.
Prediction: Ravens 30 Rams 17
PANTHERS (-3.5) over Jaguars
This one may be a blowout victory for Carolina. Jacksonville was awful last week and Cam Newton had another outstanding game, albeit in a seven point loss to Green Bay. The Jags are starting rookie Blaine Gabbert at QB, which appears to help Carolina's cause. However, the Panthers defense is in trouble and the Jaguars are sure to run a ton with Maurice Jones-Drew. Should be a close game.
Prediction: Panthers 27 Jaguars 21
Redskins (+5) over COWBOYS
For as much talent as Dallas has, they are extremely banged up. Tony Romo, Felix Jones, Jason Witten, and Dez Bryant are probably going to play hurt, and Miles Austin will miss the game with a hamstring injury. Throw in their injuries in the secondary and the Redskins have to be licking their chops. Washington should win this game, though I think Dallas is the better team and will end up higher in the standings at season's end.
Prediction: Redskins 26 Cowboys 23
Dolphins (+2.5) over BROWNS
Miami has been a much better road team than a home team over the last year, and this is their road opener. Cleveland has underwhelmed so far this year after coming in with a lot of hype. The Dolphins have more offensive weapons than the Browns, though the Browns defense is the better of the two. Should be a close one.
Prediction: Dolphins 23 Browns 17
TITANS (-7) over Broncos
Tennessee looked good in beating Baltimore last week and Denver just scraped by Cincinnati. The Broncos have major injury problems, not to mention the strength mismatch in the trenches. The Titans are more powerful and should grind out an unspectacular, but convincing victory.
Prediction: Titans 28 Broncos 14
Confidence Level High:
Patriots (-7) over BILLS
Though the New England defense has struggled so far, I think they will come up with a few big plays in Buffalo. The Bills looked great in the second half last week, but it did follow a dismal first half performance. The Patriots offense has looked spectacular at all times so far this season, and the trend should continue this week.
Prediction: Patriots 38 Bills 17
EAGLES (-9) over Giants
The Giants are a mess right now. Philly could probably cover even if Kafka plays, but with Vick back in the lineup, this should be a blowout.
Prediction: Eagles 41 Giants 10
Lions (-3.5) over VIKINGS
Minnesota's passing game has been dreadful and the Lions are stout up front. Detroit's offense may struggle against a decent Vikings defense, but it's hard to see the Vikes doing enough to win.
Prediction: Lions 24 Vikings 13
BENGALS (-2.5) over Niners
Alex Smith has been awful away from home, especially on (or near) the east coast. Both teams are a bit underrated, but until Smith shows me something, I'm picking against him out east. Also, the Niners are badly banged up at WR.
Prediction: Bengals 24 Niners 17
Steelers (-10) over COLTS
The Colts have been dreadful. The Steelers haven't looked great so far this year, but they still look like they are way too much for the old, slow Colts.
Prediction: Steelers 31 Colts 7
Lock of the Week:
Notre Dame (-7) over PITTSBURGH
As I write this Pitt leads 12-7 in the 4th quarter. Great. The Irish have dominated against two good teams and one decent team so far this year, despite being only 1-2. Pitt has given up tons of yards to bad teams, Buffalo and Maine. I saw a blowout here, but I am apparently wrong.
Prediction: Notre Dame 45 Pittsburgh 20
Thursday, September 22, 2011
NFL Week 3 Rankings
32. Kansas City Chiefs (0-2)
The Chiefs have been outscored 89-10 in their two losses to Buffalo and Detroit. Season ending injuries to their top two players have crushed their hopes for a repeat playoff visit. Matt Cassel is not the answer at QB.
31. Seattle Seahawks (0-2)
The Seahawks have a good run defense, but nothing else. Their offense has been abysmal so far, with Tavaris Jackson looking hopeless at QB.
30. Indianapolis Colts (0-2)
A top ten team with Peyton Manning, this team is near the bottom without him. The offense and defense are looking old and slow.
29. Minnesota Vikings (0-2)
Their second half performances have been this year's version of the 2010 Chargers special teams. Atrocious! They need a downfield threat at WR.
28. Miami Dolphins (0-2)
The Dolphins have lost two games to teams inside my top ten. Neither was a blowout, although the New England game was never as close as the final score would indicate. Chad Henne has been serviceable, but the Dolphins must start playing defense.
27. Cleveland Browns (1-1)
The Browns have played two of the least talented teams in the NFL and they are 1-1. Colt McCoy needs to be more accurate for them to improve. Some talent at WR wouldn't hurt either.
26. Cincinnati Bengals (1-1)
The Bengals play the 49ers in Cincy this week. Should be a good indication which of these teams will be a contender and which is going to fade to irrelevance. This may sound sacrilegious, but Andy Dalton looks like an upgrade over Carson Palmer. Palmer's skills were deteriorating and he was highly overrated the last couple of seasons.
25. Denver Broncos (1-1)
The Broncos' defense is swiss cheese. If they had Seattle's offense 0-16 would be the expectation, but Kyle Orton, Brandon Lloyd, and Eric Decker make them dangerous.
24. Carolina Panthers (0-2)
Carolina has defensive issues, but Cam Newton has made their offense exciting. He will still make a ton of mistakes, but they are going to win games this year.
23. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-1)
The Jags have a decent defense and a good running game. If Blaine Gabbert steps up like Newton and Dalton have, they could be in the playoff discussion.
22. San Francisco 49ers (1-1)
The 49ers should have beaten the Cowboys on Sunday, but they are left to rue a missed opportunity. They need to forget it quickly. A loss in Cincy could doom their season.
21. St. Louis Rams (0-2)
The Rams looked good against the Eagles despite getting blown out, and then controlled the game against the Giants, while getting blown out again. Weird. They have a brutal stretch to open their season, so it might not get better until Week 9.
20. Arizona Cardinals (1-1)
Something needs to be done about Arizona's defense, which is ranked 29th in the league right now. Kevin Kolb has been decent, but this team needs to get better. Or maybe they don't, seeing as they play in the worst division in the NFL.
19. New York Giants (1-1)
The Giants have been largely unimpressive, getting beat by the Redskins and then outplayed by the Rams, albeit in a win. The defense has responded to all their injuries better than expected, but their offense has surprisingly been lackluster.
18. Oakland Raiders (1-1)
The Raiders looked awesome in the first half in Buffalo and then the wheels fell off in the second. Denarius Moore looks like a future star; he caught everything thrown his way (and it's debatable that he caught the Hail Mary pass too). If the defense responds, they could overtake the Chargers in the West.
17. Tennessee Titans (1-1)
Tennessee was one of my sleeper teams this year, and they responded well last week after an opening day dud. If Hasselbeck and Britt stay healthy, they will win 8-9 games.
16. Buffalo Bills (2-0)
Yes the Bills are 2-0, but in the immortal words of Harvey Keitel, "Well, let's not start sucking each other's d$%#s quite yet." They have only beaten the Raiders and Chiefs after all, needing last second heroics to beat the former. They may end up higher on this list, but I'm anticipating 8-8 or 9-7. This week against New England should tell a lot.
15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-1)
The Bucs may be overrated right now, but Josh Freeman has been so good late in games that I'm willing to give them the benefit of the doubt. But they must start faster and get LaGarrette Blount on track. The defense is decent, but nowhere near elite.
14. Washington Redskins (2-0)
Washington has been better than anyone not named Rex Grossman has expected. But their schedule is about to get tougher. They haven't overwhelmed anyone, but they are solid.
13. Chicago Bears (1-1)
Jay Cutler isn't going to last the season if his offensive line play doesn't improve. (Insert sarcasm font) You'd never know the offense was being run by Mike Martz (End font). Forte and Urlacher have been great.
12. Dallas Cowboys (1-1)
Dallas should be 1-1, but with a victory over the Jets and a loss to the 49ers, rather than the other way around. They have been hit hard by the injury bug, and luckily, their bye is early in the season.
11. San Diego Chargers (1-1)
The Chargers need to avoid a poor start for a change. Playing the Chiefs in San Diego should ensure at least a .500 September, which for this team, is a victory. Rivers, Jackson, and Tolbert have been great so far.
10. Atlanta Falcons (1-1)
Their defense has been poor ever since their playoff loss to Green Bay last year. They have a lot of talent on offense, but they cannot stop anyone right now.
9. Detroit Lions (2-0)
The Lions are still largely unproven, though they have looked great in wins over the Bucs and Chiefs. They travel to Minnesota this week, which could be telling. If they stumble, it could be a frustrating year, but another convincing win may start drawing comparisons to the 1999 Super Bowl winning Rams.
8. Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1)
The Steelers were overrun by Baltimore on opening day and then were underwhelming in defeating Seattle. Maybe it's only a slow start, but this team suddenly looks ordinary. I'm guessing they will snap out of it and look more like the Steelers soon.
7. Baltimore Ravens (1-1)
After looking awesome against Pittsburgh, the Ravens were outplayed and beaten by the lowly Titans last week. They must get more consistent.
6. Houston Texans (2-0)
Houston travels to New Orleans this week, which should be an excellent measuring stick for them. With an improved defense, the sky is the limit for the Texans, but can they beat a good team on the road?
5. New Orleans Saints (1-1)
The Saints defense was much improved against the Bears last week, but they will be tested again by Houston this week. Drew Brees looks great already.
4. Philadelphia Eagles (1-1)
The Eagles should be 2-0, but Vick's concussion led to their week two loss to the Falcons. If he plays this week, the Eagles should smoke the Giants. If not, they might smoke them anyway.
3. New York Jets (2-0)
The Jets have the best defense in football, but their offense is a big question mark. Sanchez is improving, but has anyone seen Shonn Greene?
2. Green Bay Packers (2-0)
The Packers' offense hasn't missed a beat so far this year. The defense was shredded (yardage wise) by Drew Brees and Cam Newton in the first two weeks though, so there are concerns.
1. New England Patriots (2-0)
Tom Brady has this offense humming so far this year. The defense is suspect, but at this rate, they only need a couple stops per game to win comfortably.
The Chiefs have been outscored 89-10 in their two losses to Buffalo and Detroit. Season ending injuries to their top two players have crushed their hopes for a repeat playoff visit. Matt Cassel is not the answer at QB.
31. Seattle Seahawks (0-2)
The Seahawks have a good run defense, but nothing else. Their offense has been abysmal so far, with Tavaris Jackson looking hopeless at QB.
30. Indianapolis Colts (0-2)
A top ten team with Peyton Manning, this team is near the bottom without him. The offense and defense are looking old and slow.
29. Minnesota Vikings (0-2)
Their second half performances have been this year's version of the 2010 Chargers special teams. Atrocious! They need a downfield threat at WR.
28. Miami Dolphins (0-2)
The Dolphins have lost two games to teams inside my top ten. Neither was a blowout, although the New England game was never as close as the final score would indicate. Chad Henne has been serviceable, but the Dolphins must start playing defense.
27. Cleveland Browns (1-1)
The Browns have played two of the least talented teams in the NFL and they are 1-1. Colt McCoy needs to be more accurate for them to improve. Some talent at WR wouldn't hurt either.
26. Cincinnati Bengals (1-1)
The Bengals play the 49ers in Cincy this week. Should be a good indication which of these teams will be a contender and which is going to fade to irrelevance. This may sound sacrilegious, but Andy Dalton looks like an upgrade over Carson Palmer. Palmer's skills were deteriorating and he was highly overrated the last couple of seasons.
25. Denver Broncos (1-1)
The Broncos' defense is swiss cheese. If they had Seattle's offense 0-16 would be the expectation, but Kyle Orton, Brandon Lloyd, and Eric Decker make them dangerous.
24. Carolina Panthers (0-2)
Carolina has defensive issues, but Cam Newton has made their offense exciting. He will still make a ton of mistakes, but they are going to win games this year.
23. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-1)
The Jags have a decent defense and a good running game. If Blaine Gabbert steps up like Newton and Dalton have, they could be in the playoff discussion.
22. San Francisco 49ers (1-1)
The 49ers should have beaten the Cowboys on Sunday, but they are left to rue a missed opportunity. They need to forget it quickly. A loss in Cincy could doom their season.
21. St. Louis Rams (0-2)
The Rams looked good against the Eagles despite getting blown out, and then controlled the game against the Giants, while getting blown out again. Weird. They have a brutal stretch to open their season, so it might not get better until Week 9.
20. Arizona Cardinals (1-1)
Something needs to be done about Arizona's defense, which is ranked 29th in the league right now. Kevin Kolb has been decent, but this team needs to get better. Or maybe they don't, seeing as they play in the worst division in the NFL.
19. New York Giants (1-1)
The Giants have been largely unimpressive, getting beat by the Redskins and then outplayed by the Rams, albeit in a win. The defense has responded to all their injuries better than expected, but their offense has surprisingly been lackluster.
18. Oakland Raiders (1-1)
The Raiders looked awesome in the first half in Buffalo and then the wheels fell off in the second. Denarius Moore looks like a future star; he caught everything thrown his way (and it's debatable that he caught the Hail Mary pass too). If the defense responds, they could overtake the Chargers in the West.
17. Tennessee Titans (1-1)
Tennessee was one of my sleeper teams this year, and they responded well last week after an opening day dud. If Hasselbeck and Britt stay healthy, they will win 8-9 games.
16. Buffalo Bills (2-0)
Yes the Bills are 2-0, but in the immortal words of Harvey Keitel, "Well, let's not start sucking each other's d$%#s quite yet." They have only beaten the Raiders and Chiefs after all, needing last second heroics to beat the former. They may end up higher on this list, but I'm anticipating 8-8 or 9-7. This week against New England should tell a lot.
15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-1)
The Bucs may be overrated right now, but Josh Freeman has been so good late in games that I'm willing to give them the benefit of the doubt. But they must start faster and get LaGarrette Blount on track. The defense is decent, but nowhere near elite.
14. Washington Redskins (2-0)
Washington has been better than anyone not named Rex Grossman has expected. But their schedule is about to get tougher. They haven't overwhelmed anyone, but they are solid.
13. Chicago Bears (1-1)
Jay Cutler isn't going to last the season if his offensive line play doesn't improve. (Insert sarcasm font) You'd never know the offense was being run by Mike Martz (End font). Forte and Urlacher have been great.
12. Dallas Cowboys (1-1)
Dallas should be 1-1, but with a victory over the Jets and a loss to the 49ers, rather than the other way around. They have been hit hard by the injury bug, and luckily, their bye is early in the season.
11. San Diego Chargers (1-1)
The Chargers need to avoid a poor start for a change. Playing the Chiefs in San Diego should ensure at least a .500 September, which for this team, is a victory. Rivers, Jackson, and Tolbert have been great so far.
10. Atlanta Falcons (1-1)
Their defense has been poor ever since their playoff loss to Green Bay last year. They have a lot of talent on offense, but they cannot stop anyone right now.
9. Detroit Lions (2-0)
The Lions are still largely unproven, though they have looked great in wins over the Bucs and Chiefs. They travel to Minnesota this week, which could be telling. If they stumble, it could be a frustrating year, but another convincing win may start drawing comparisons to the 1999 Super Bowl winning Rams.
8. Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1)
The Steelers were overrun by Baltimore on opening day and then were underwhelming in defeating Seattle. Maybe it's only a slow start, but this team suddenly looks ordinary. I'm guessing they will snap out of it and look more like the Steelers soon.
7. Baltimore Ravens (1-1)
After looking awesome against Pittsburgh, the Ravens were outplayed and beaten by the lowly Titans last week. They must get more consistent.
6. Houston Texans (2-0)
Houston travels to New Orleans this week, which should be an excellent measuring stick for them. With an improved defense, the sky is the limit for the Texans, but can they beat a good team on the road?
5. New Orleans Saints (1-1)
The Saints defense was much improved against the Bears last week, but they will be tested again by Houston this week. Drew Brees looks great already.
4. Philadelphia Eagles (1-1)
The Eagles should be 2-0, but Vick's concussion led to their week two loss to the Falcons. If he plays this week, the Eagles should smoke the Giants. If not, they might smoke them anyway.
3. New York Jets (2-0)
The Jets have the best defense in football, but their offense is a big question mark. Sanchez is improving, but has anyone seen Shonn Greene?
2. Green Bay Packers (2-0)
The Packers' offense hasn't missed a beat so far this year. The defense was shredded (yardage wise) by Drew Brees and Cam Newton in the first two weeks though, so there are concerns.
1. New England Patriots (2-0)
Tom Brady has this offense humming so far this year. The defense is suspect, but at this rate, they only need a couple stops per game to win comfortably.
Saturday, September 17, 2011
NFL Week 2 - Line Betting
Here are my betting picks for Week 2 of the NFL season (HOME teams are listed in CAPS):
Not touching these games with a 39 and a half foot pole:
Rams (+7) over GIANTS
I'm not even considering a wager on this Monday night game because both teams have been devastated by injuries. It is therefore difficult to predict how the teams play. However, if I have to pick somebody, I'd take the Rams. They looked better than their 31-13 opening loss to the Eagles would indicate and the Giants were outplayed by the Washington in their opener. Even on the road, the Rams shouldn't be a touchdown underdog to a team that just lost to the Redskins.
Prediction: Giants 24 Rams 20
Eagles (+1) over FALCONS
The Sunday night game is almost as difficult to predict. Atlanta thoroughly disappointed in their opening 30-12 loss to Chicago, while Philadelphia took the Rams defense apart. But the Falcons have a stout running game with Michael Turner and the Eagles were gashed by both Steven Jackson and Cadillac Williams last week. However, Atlanta plays poorly from behind when they have to rely on passing, and the Eagles secondary may be the best in the league (with all due respect to the Jets). Tough one to call, but I like Philly to cover.
Prediction: Eagles 31 Falcons 27
Confidence Level Low:
VIKINGS (-2.5) over Buccaneers
Tampa Bay did not look ready to start the season in their loss to Detroit, but Minnesota's offense was just as anemic in their opening loss in San Diego. I think this matchup is pretty dang even, and when the matchup looks even, the home team generally should cover three points. Besides, something in my mind just doesn't feel right when I picture the Bucs going into the Metrodome and winning.
Prediction: Vikings 24 Buccaneers 21
Texans (-2.5) over DOLPHINS
Last year, Houston beat the Colts in week one, celebrated finally getting over the hump, and then forgot to play the rest of their schedule. This year, the Texans dominated the Colts again, but they seem to understand that it is only one game. The Miami offense looked much improved against New England last week, but I want to see them do it again before I start believing. Houston's pass rush looked great last week and they could give Chad Henne fits. That may be the difference in the game.
Prediction: Texans 23 Dolphins 16
COLTS (+1) over Browns
Cleveland was supposed to be the surprise of the year, but their opening day dud at home against Cincinnati has lowered their expectations. The Colts were worse than most people dreamed in week one, proving how valuable Peyton Manning really is. However, I don't think they are quite as bad as they looked last week. The Browns should be looking to unleash Peyton Hillis against Indy's weak run defense, but I think the Colts will make just enough plays to win.
Prediction: Colts 16 Browns 13
PATRIOTS (-8) over Chargers
Tom Brady was unstoppable in New England's opening win over Miami, but their defense was exposed several times as well. San Diego played an excellent second half after sleepwalking through the first against Minnesota. For whatever reason, the Chargers lack the ability to focus for an entire sixty minutes, and Belichick's Patriots will take advantage of their mistakes.
Prediction: Patriots 34 Chargers 24
Bengals (+3) over BRONCOS
Denver underachieved in their opening loss at home to Oakland, while Cincinnati was fortunate to escape with a victory in Cleveland. I really want to take Denver, but their abundance of injuries could slow down their offense, and if Champ Bailey can't play, their defense is in trouble too. The Bengals are strong on the ground and run defense is Denver's weak point. I think this one may come down to the wire.
Prediction: Broncos 17 Bengals 16
TITANS (+7) over Ravens
Baltimore was inspired in week one's demolition of Pittsburgh, while Tennessee was uninspired in their opening loss in Jacksonville. Chris Johnson has had another week of practice to get into game shape, and Tennessee's defense is decent. This looks like a setup game, where Baltimore under performs after a big win.
Prediction: Ravens 26 Titans 21
Confidence Level Medium:
Raiders (+3) over BILLS
Two teams that may be surprised to be 1-0 meet in Buffalo. The Bills crushed an awful Kansas City team last week, while the Raiders beat the Broncos in Denver on Monday night. The Raiders will be without their top two, and possibly top three, wide receivers, but they don't figure to throw much anyway. Their pass rush should make life much more difficult for Ryan Fitzpatrick, and could cause the Bills' spread offense to sputter.
This one should be close.
Prediction: Raiders 24 Bills 23
REDSKINS (-3.5) over Cardinals
Washington looked good in their week one upset of the Giants, and their offense should continue to roll against Arizona. The Cardinals' defense on opening day was woeful, giving up 422 passing yards to Cam Newton, in the rookie's first NFL game. Rex Grossman is sure to make one or two bonehead plays, but he should still have a good day throwing the football. Kevin Kolb had good numbers against Carolina's defense, but he didn't look comfortable most of the day. The Redskins defense should make it more difficult on him than the Panthers defense did.
Prediction: Redskins 27 Cardinals 14
Bears (+7) over SAINTS
New Orleans' defense was atrocious in their opening loss to Green Bay. Their offense looked good, but not great, and Chicago's defense is outstanding. Without Marques Colston, the Saints are less dynamic. Chicago will be trying to win this one for Brian Urlacher, who lost his mother earlier this week. Though the Bears don't have a high powered offense, the Saints defense may make them look like one. I think Chicago may win this one outright.
Prediction: Bears 28 Saints 23
JETS (-10) over Jaguars
The problem with this line is that the Jets rarely blow teams out. But it's difficult to see Jacksonville putting many points on the board either. New York has a ton of weapons on offense, and if Mark Sanchez can take a few steps forward this year, they could be lethal. Luke McCown played pretty well against Tennessee in week one, but the Jets defense is beastly.
Prediction: Jets 24 Jaguars 6
Confidence Level High:
LIONS (-9) over Chiefs
Detroit looked as if they are for real in their opening win in Tampa Bay, while Kansas City laid an egg at home in their 41-7 loss to Buffalo. The loss of their Pro Bowl safety Eric Berry will make things even more difficult for the Chiefs going forward. The Lions will throw the ball often and well. Their defense line looks dominant as well and should stifle Jamaal Charles and Matt Cassel.
Prediction: Lions 33 Chiefs 10
STEELERS (-15) over Seahawks
The Steelers are going to be an ornery bunch after their 35-7 loss to the Ravens on opening day. Seattle lost to a weak San Francisco team, and looked dreadful on offense doing it. The Seattle defense is decent and they are the only thing capable of keeping the Seahawks in the game. Ben Roethlisberger and Rashard Mendenhall should have field days.
Prediction: Steelers 34 Seahawks 6
Packers (-11) over PANTHERS
Green Bay's offense was dominant in their 42-34 victory over New Orleans. Their defense wasn't as bad as the score would indicate, but they sure could have been better. They should play better against Cam Newton. The rookie, who played exceptionally against Arizona, should get a reality check against a tough Packer defense this week. Aaron Rodgers should have another big day against a porous (and injury depleted) Carolina defense.
Prediction: Packers 41 Panthers 17
Lock of the Week:
Cowboys (-2.5) over NINERS
Dallas dominated the Jets on the road on Sunday night for three and a half quarters, before spectacularly blowing the game. San Francisco, at home against Seattle, needed two late return TDs from Ted Ginn to ensure victory. Tony Romo should have a bounce back game against an average 49ers defense, while the Cowboys defense should force some mistakes out of Alex Smith. Felix Jones could have a big game.
Prediction: Cowboys 31 49ers 13
Not touching these games with a 39 and a half foot pole:
Rams (+7) over GIANTS
I'm not even considering a wager on this Monday night game because both teams have been devastated by injuries. It is therefore difficult to predict how the teams play. However, if I have to pick somebody, I'd take the Rams. They looked better than their 31-13 opening loss to the Eagles would indicate and the Giants were outplayed by the Washington in their opener. Even on the road, the Rams shouldn't be a touchdown underdog to a team that just lost to the Redskins.
Prediction: Giants 24 Rams 20
Eagles (+1) over FALCONS
The Sunday night game is almost as difficult to predict. Atlanta thoroughly disappointed in their opening 30-12 loss to Chicago, while Philadelphia took the Rams defense apart. But the Falcons have a stout running game with Michael Turner and the Eagles were gashed by both Steven Jackson and Cadillac Williams last week. However, Atlanta plays poorly from behind when they have to rely on passing, and the Eagles secondary may be the best in the league (with all due respect to the Jets). Tough one to call, but I like Philly to cover.
Prediction: Eagles 31 Falcons 27
Confidence Level Low:
VIKINGS (-2.5) over Buccaneers
Tampa Bay did not look ready to start the season in their loss to Detroit, but Minnesota's offense was just as anemic in their opening loss in San Diego. I think this matchup is pretty dang even, and when the matchup looks even, the home team generally should cover three points. Besides, something in my mind just doesn't feel right when I picture the Bucs going into the Metrodome and winning.
Prediction: Vikings 24 Buccaneers 21
Texans (-2.5) over DOLPHINS
Last year, Houston beat the Colts in week one, celebrated finally getting over the hump, and then forgot to play the rest of their schedule. This year, the Texans dominated the Colts again, but they seem to understand that it is only one game. The Miami offense looked much improved against New England last week, but I want to see them do it again before I start believing. Houston's pass rush looked great last week and they could give Chad Henne fits. That may be the difference in the game.
Prediction: Texans 23 Dolphins 16
COLTS (+1) over Browns
Cleveland was supposed to be the surprise of the year, but their opening day dud at home against Cincinnati has lowered their expectations. The Colts were worse than most people dreamed in week one, proving how valuable Peyton Manning really is. However, I don't think they are quite as bad as they looked last week. The Browns should be looking to unleash Peyton Hillis against Indy's weak run defense, but I think the Colts will make just enough plays to win.
Prediction: Colts 16 Browns 13
PATRIOTS (-8) over Chargers
Tom Brady was unstoppable in New England's opening win over Miami, but their defense was exposed several times as well. San Diego played an excellent second half after sleepwalking through the first against Minnesota. For whatever reason, the Chargers lack the ability to focus for an entire sixty minutes, and Belichick's Patriots will take advantage of their mistakes.
Prediction: Patriots 34 Chargers 24
Bengals (+3) over BRONCOS
Denver underachieved in their opening loss at home to Oakland, while Cincinnati was fortunate to escape with a victory in Cleveland. I really want to take Denver, but their abundance of injuries could slow down their offense, and if Champ Bailey can't play, their defense is in trouble too. The Bengals are strong on the ground and run defense is Denver's weak point. I think this one may come down to the wire.
Prediction: Broncos 17 Bengals 16
TITANS (+7) over Ravens
Baltimore was inspired in week one's demolition of Pittsburgh, while Tennessee was uninspired in their opening loss in Jacksonville. Chris Johnson has had another week of practice to get into game shape, and Tennessee's defense is decent. This looks like a setup game, where Baltimore under performs after a big win.
Prediction: Ravens 26 Titans 21
Confidence Level Medium:
Raiders (+3) over BILLS
Two teams that may be surprised to be 1-0 meet in Buffalo. The Bills crushed an awful Kansas City team last week, while the Raiders beat the Broncos in Denver on Monday night. The Raiders will be without their top two, and possibly top three, wide receivers, but they don't figure to throw much anyway. Their pass rush should make life much more difficult for Ryan Fitzpatrick, and could cause the Bills' spread offense to sputter.
This one should be close.
Prediction: Raiders 24 Bills 23
REDSKINS (-3.5) over Cardinals
Washington looked good in their week one upset of the Giants, and their offense should continue to roll against Arizona. The Cardinals' defense on opening day was woeful, giving up 422 passing yards to Cam Newton, in the rookie's first NFL game. Rex Grossman is sure to make one or two bonehead plays, but he should still have a good day throwing the football. Kevin Kolb had good numbers against Carolina's defense, but he didn't look comfortable most of the day. The Redskins defense should make it more difficult on him than the Panthers defense did.
Prediction: Redskins 27 Cardinals 14
Bears (+7) over SAINTS
New Orleans' defense was atrocious in their opening loss to Green Bay. Their offense looked good, but not great, and Chicago's defense is outstanding. Without Marques Colston, the Saints are less dynamic. Chicago will be trying to win this one for Brian Urlacher, who lost his mother earlier this week. Though the Bears don't have a high powered offense, the Saints defense may make them look like one. I think Chicago may win this one outright.
Prediction: Bears 28 Saints 23
JETS (-10) over Jaguars
The problem with this line is that the Jets rarely blow teams out. But it's difficult to see Jacksonville putting many points on the board either. New York has a ton of weapons on offense, and if Mark Sanchez can take a few steps forward this year, they could be lethal. Luke McCown played pretty well against Tennessee in week one, but the Jets defense is beastly.
Prediction: Jets 24 Jaguars 6
Confidence Level High:
LIONS (-9) over Chiefs
Detroit looked as if they are for real in their opening win in Tampa Bay, while Kansas City laid an egg at home in their 41-7 loss to Buffalo. The loss of their Pro Bowl safety Eric Berry will make things even more difficult for the Chiefs going forward. The Lions will throw the ball often and well. Their defense line looks dominant as well and should stifle Jamaal Charles and Matt Cassel.
Prediction: Lions 33 Chiefs 10
STEELERS (-15) over Seahawks
The Steelers are going to be an ornery bunch after their 35-7 loss to the Ravens on opening day. Seattle lost to a weak San Francisco team, and looked dreadful on offense doing it. The Seattle defense is decent and they are the only thing capable of keeping the Seahawks in the game. Ben Roethlisberger and Rashard Mendenhall should have field days.
Prediction: Steelers 34 Seahawks 6
Packers (-11) over PANTHERS
Green Bay's offense was dominant in their 42-34 victory over New Orleans. Their defense wasn't as bad as the score would indicate, but they sure could have been better. They should play better against Cam Newton. The rookie, who played exceptionally against Arizona, should get a reality check against a tough Packer defense this week. Aaron Rodgers should have another big day against a porous (and injury depleted) Carolina defense.
Prediction: Packers 41 Panthers 17
Lock of the Week:
Cowboys (-2.5) over NINERS
Dallas dominated the Jets on the road on Sunday night for three and a half quarters, before spectacularly blowing the game. San Francisco, at home against Seattle, needed two late return TDs from Ted Ginn to ensure victory. Tony Romo should have a bounce back game against an average 49ers defense, while the Cowboys defense should force some mistakes out of Alex Smith. Felix Jones could have a big game.
Prediction: Cowboys 31 49ers 13
2011 NFL Predictions (Made before Week 1)
This blog was moved from my poker blog, since I've decided to create another blog, related to all things non-poker related.
AFC East
1. New York Jets (13-3)
2. New England Patriots (11-5)
3. Miami Dolphins (5-11)
4. Buffalo Bills (5-11)
I think Mark Sanchez may finally start becoming an above average NFL QB, which means the Jets will be tough to beat. The Patriots are getting a little old on offense, and I would not be surprised to see them struggle from time to time. The Dolphins and Bills are decent, but in this division decent doesn't get it done.
AFC North
1. Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)
2. Baltimore Ravens (10-6)
3. Cleveland Browns (7-9)
4. Cincinnati Bengals (3-13)
Once again, the Steelers are the class of the division. They have an awesome defense, and they are above average both running and throwing the football. The Ravens have the makings of an excellent offense, but their defense is getting old and I think they will be involved in a few shootouts this year. Cleveland is improving, but they still have a ways to go on defense before they reach .500. Cincinnati is not dreadful, but a rookie QB and WR combination will make winning difficult.
AFC South
1. Houston Texans (10-6)
2. Tennessee Titans (8-8)
3. Indianapolis Colts (7-9)
4. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11)
This looks like the year that Houston finally makes the playoffs. A revamped defense should help them stay in more games for their offense to win, but it may take a while for the new system to start running smoothly. The Titans are one of my sleeper teams; Matt Hasselbeck is an above average QB when healthy. If he stays healthy, the Titans will be decent. I was predicting the Colts to be weaker this year even before Peyton Manning was reported to be out early in the season (possibly all season). They sure won't improve without him. This team could finish last if Manning is out for the year. Their defense is abominable, their running game is just as bad, and Reggie Wayne is slowing down. The Jaguars didn't excite me before they cut David Garrard, and they sure don't excite me now.
AFC West
1. San Diego Chargers (10-6)
2. Oakland Raiders (7-9)
3. Kansas City Chiefs (7-9)
4. Denver Broncos (6-10)
This division is pretty awful. The Chargers finished #1 in the NFL in both offense and defense last year, but their special teams were so bad that they missed the playoffs anyway. Now that Wade Phillips and Brad Childress are out of jobs Norv Turner becomes the runaway winner of the Worst Coach in the NFL award. If the Chargers don't win the West this year, he has to be gone. The Raiders would have been my favorite to win the division, but the losses of Asomugha and Zach Miller will hurt them badly. The Chiefs overachieved against a weak schedule last year, and their schedule gets much tougher this year. Denver should not be as bad this year either, since their entire defense was injured last year.
NFC East
1. Philadelphia Eagles (11-5)
2. Dallas Cowboys (10-6)
3. New York Giants (8-8)
4. Washington Redskins (6-10)
Unless Michael Vick gets injured the Eagles should win the division. But they do have some problems and they will not walk effortlessly through their schedule. The Cowboys are lurking, and with a weak schedule, they could easily take the division away. Romo is healthy and Wade Phillips is no longer around to screw things up. The Giants would be my pick to win the East, but injuries have decimated their defense. The Redskins are not awful, but they sure aren't good either.
NFC North
1. Green Bay Packers (12-4)
2. Detroit Lions (9-7)
3. Minnesota Vikings (8-8)
4. Chicago Bears (6-10)
The Packers should be able to comfortably take this division. The defending champs just have too much talent to not win a lot of games. The Lions have built a talented team, and if Matthew Stafford stays healthy they could be a playoff team. I think McNabb will help the Vikings immensely; they are nowhere near as bad as their 6-10 record last year. The Bears somehow went 11-5 last year, but they were lucky to win a good number of those games. Their talent level is not that high.
NFC South
1. New Orleans Saints (12-4)
2. Atlanta Falcons (11-5)
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-8)
4. Carolina Panthers (4-12)
For the Saints, everything hinges on their defense. Their offense is elite, and if their defense plays well, they could win another Super Bowl. If not, another wild-card exit could occur. The Falcons have built an excellent team, but they could suffer a hangover from their playoff humiliation at the hands of the Packers last year. The Bucs overachieved last year, 8-8 sounds about right for this year. The Panthers will start Cam Newton at QB, but they have a strong ground game to take some of the pressure off of him.
NFC West
1. Arizona Cardinals (9-7)
2. St. Louis Rams (7-9)
3. Seattle Seahawks (5-11)
4. San Francisco 49ers (4-12)
The Cardinals have the most talent in the division, and a decent QB in Kolb. The Rams have a tough early schedule and will have a tough time getting to .500. The Seahawks and 49ers both are extremely weak at QB.
Playoff Predictions (HOME teams in CAPS):
Wild Card
New England 27 SAN DIEGO 20
HOUSTON 30 Baltimore 24
PHILADELPHIA 23 Dallas 20
Atlanta 24 ARIZONA 10
Divisional
N.Y. JETS 27 New England 21
PITTSBURGH 28 Houston 27
GREEN BAY 31 Philadelphia 24
Atlanta 16 NEW ORLEANS 13
Conference Championship
N.Y. JETS 17 Pittsburgh 14
GREEN BAY 31 Atlanta 17
SUPER BOWL
N.Y. Jets 23 Green Bay 20
AFC East
1. New York Jets (13-3)
2. New England Patriots (11-5)
3. Miami Dolphins (5-11)
4. Buffalo Bills (5-11)
I think Mark Sanchez may finally start becoming an above average NFL QB, which means the Jets will be tough to beat. The Patriots are getting a little old on offense, and I would not be surprised to see them struggle from time to time. The Dolphins and Bills are decent, but in this division decent doesn't get it done.
AFC North
1. Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)
2. Baltimore Ravens (10-6)
3. Cleveland Browns (7-9)
4. Cincinnati Bengals (3-13)
Once again, the Steelers are the class of the division. They have an awesome defense, and they are above average both running and throwing the football. The Ravens have the makings of an excellent offense, but their defense is getting old and I think they will be involved in a few shootouts this year. Cleveland is improving, but they still have a ways to go on defense before they reach .500. Cincinnati is not dreadful, but a rookie QB and WR combination will make winning difficult.
AFC South
1. Houston Texans (10-6)
2. Tennessee Titans (8-8)
3. Indianapolis Colts (7-9)
4. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11)
This looks like the year that Houston finally makes the playoffs. A revamped defense should help them stay in more games for their offense to win, but it may take a while for the new system to start running smoothly. The Titans are one of my sleeper teams; Matt Hasselbeck is an above average QB when healthy. If he stays healthy, the Titans will be decent. I was predicting the Colts to be weaker this year even before Peyton Manning was reported to be out early in the season (possibly all season). They sure won't improve without him. This team could finish last if Manning is out for the year. Their defense is abominable, their running game is just as bad, and Reggie Wayne is slowing down. The Jaguars didn't excite me before they cut David Garrard, and they sure don't excite me now.
AFC West
1. San Diego Chargers (10-6)
2. Oakland Raiders (7-9)
3. Kansas City Chiefs (7-9)
4. Denver Broncos (6-10)
This division is pretty awful. The Chargers finished #1 in the NFL in both offense and defense last year, but their special teams were so bad that they missed the playoffs anyway. Now that Wade Phillips and Brad Childress are out of jobs Norv Turner becomes the runaway winner of the Worst Coach in the NFL award. If the Chargers don't win the West this year, he has to be gone. The Raiders would have been my favorite to win the division, but the losses of Asomugha and Zach Miller will hurt them badly. The Chiefs overachieved against a weak schedule last year, and their schedule gets much tougher this year. Denver should not be as bad this year either, since their entire defense was injured last year.
NFC East
1. Philadelphia Eagles (11-5)
2. Dallas Cowboys (10-6)
3. New York Giants (8-8)
4. Washington Redskins (6-10)
Unless Michael Vick gets injured the Eagles should win the division. But they do have some problems and they will not walk effortlessly through their schedule. The Cowboys are lurking, and with a weak schedule, they could easily take the division away. Romo is healthy and Wade Phillips is no longer around to screw things up. The Giants would be my pick to win the East, but injuries have decimated their defense. The Redskins are not awful, but they sure aren't good either.
NFC North
1. Green Bay Packers (12-4)
2. Detroit Lions (9-7)
3. Minnesota Vikings (8-8)
4. Chicago Bears (6-10)
The Packers should be able to comfortably take this division. The defending champs just have too much talent to not win a lot of games. The Lions have built a talented team, and if Matthew Stafford stays healthy they could be a playoff team. I think McNabb will help the Vikings immensely; they are nowhere near as bad as their 6-10 record last year. The Bears somehow went 11-5 last year, but they were lucky to win a good number of those games. Their talent level is not that high.
NFC South
1. New Orleans Saints (12-4)
2. Atlanta Falcons (11-5)
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-8)
4. Carolina Panthers (4-12)
For the Saints, everything hinges on their defense. Their offense is elite, and if their defense plays well, they could win another Super Bowl. If not, another wild-card exit could occur. The Falcons have built an excellent team, but they could suffer a hangover from their playoff humiliation at the hands of the Packers last year. The Bucs overachieved last year, 8-8 sounds about right for this year. The Panthers will start Cam Newton at QB, but they have a strong ground game to take some of the pressure off of him.
NFC West
1. Arizona Cardinals (9-7)
2. St. Louis Rams (7-9)
3. Seattle Seahawks (5-11)
4. San Francisco 49ers (4-12)
The Cardinals have the most talent in the division, and a decent QB in Kolb. The Rams have a tough early schedule and will have a tough time getting to .500. The Seahawks and 49ers both are extremely weak at QB.
Playoff Predictions (HOME teams in CAPS):
Wild Card
New England 27 SAN DIEGO 20
HOUSTON 30 Baltimore 24
PHILADELPHIA 23 Dallas 20
Atlanta 24 ARIZONA 10
Divisional
N.Y. JETS 27 New England 21
PITTSBURGH 28 Houston 27
GREEN BAY 31 Philadelphia 24
Atlanta 16 NEW ORLEANS 13
Conference Championship
N.Y. JETS 17 Pittsburgh 14
GREEN BAY 31 Atlanta 17
SUPER BOWL
N.Y. Jets 23 Green Bay 20
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