Week 6 Picks

Week 4 picks:  6-7-1  (30-31-2 for the season)

Not touching these games:  1-0-1  (2-4-1)
Confidence Level Low:  2-3  (12-8)
Confidence Level Medium:  1-3  (9-9-1)
Confidence Level High:  1-1  (5-8)
Lock of the Week:  1-0  (2-2)

Week 5 bets placed:
$2.04 to win $4.04 - COLTS (-2.5) over Chiefs:  Loss - Score:  Chiefs 28  COLTS 24
$2.30 to win $4.30 - Eagles (-2.5) over BILLS:  Loss - Score:  BILLS 31  Eagles 24
$2.20 to win $4.20 - Bengals (-1) over JAGUARS:  Win $4.20 - Score:  Bengals 30  JAGUARS 20
$2.00 to win $4.10 - Buccaneers (+2.5) over NINERS:  Loss - Score:  NINERS 48  Buccaneers 3
$2.20 to win $4.20 - BRONCOS (+4.5) over Chargers:  Loss - Score:  Chargers 29  BRONCOS 24
$3.30 to win $6.30 - Raiders (+6) over TEXANS:  Win $6.30 - Score:  Raiders 25  TEXANS 20
$4.40 to win $8.40 - Raiders @ Texans Under 48.5:  Win $8.40 - Score:  Raiders 25  TEXANS 20
$2.00 to win $18.00 - 7.5 point pleaser - PANTHERS (-0.5) over Saints, FALCONS (-0.5) over Packers:  Loss
$3.00 to win $13.05 - 5 point teaser - VA TECH (-2.5) over Miami (FL), Raiders (+10.5) over TEXANS, Bengals (+6) over JAGS, Bengals @ Jags Under 41.5:  Loss
$2.00 to win $4.10 - 14 point teaser - Eagles @ Bills Over 36, Saints @ Panthers Over 37, Bengals (+15) over JAGS, Bucs (+15) over NINERS, Chargers (+10.5) over BRONCOS, Packers @ Falcons Over 39:  Loss

$25.44 wagered - $18.90 collected = $6.54 loss


Week 6 Picks (HOME team in CAPS)

Not touching these games:


PACKERS (-14) over Rams
The Rams are coming off of their bye and may be the fresher team, but the talent chasm is wide.  This one might be close for awhile, but in Green Bay it's tough not to see a Packer blowout.

Prediction:  Packers 38  Rams 17

Texans (+7.5) over RAVENS
The Texans are banged up.  Baltimore is fresh off of a bye week.  But the talent level is not separated by enough to want to take the Ravens, giving more than a touchdown.  Matt Schaub is still Houston's QB, and he has several talented receivers to throw to, even without Andre Johnson.

Prediction:  Ravens 27  Texans 21

Confidence Level Low:

JETS (-7) over Dolphins
Both teams are a mess, but Miami is short of talent as well.  New Jersey should not have much trouble containing the Dolphins offense in this one.  Shonn Greene needs to get rolling.

Prediction:  Jets 26  Dolphins 14

Colts (+7) over BENGALS
It is difficult to see the Bengals beating anybody by more than a touchdown (their two wins by over a TD came on last second plays).  Curtis Painter has the offense rolling much better than Kerry Collins did, and the Colts defense is decent.

Prediction:  Bengals 20  Colts 17

Bills (+3.5) over GIANTS
Can the Bills continue their awesome start to the season?  The Giants and Titans are the two most inconsistent teams in the NFL, which makes their games difficult to predict.  That said, this one should be tight.  Both defenses will struggle to contain the offenses.

Prediction:  Giants 30  Bills 27

Confidence Level Medium:

Eagles (-2.5) over REDSKINS
Everything about this game points to a Washington win.  They run the ball well, while the Eagles can't stop the run.  Their defensive line is strong and Philly's starting tackles are ailing.  But sometimes, a talented team just needs a win and gets it over a less talented opponent.

Prediction:  Eagles 27  Redskins 13


Cowboys (+6.5) over PATRIOTS
This game should be full of offense.  Dallas is coming off of a bye week, which should have helped them recover from a slew of injuries.  Neither defense looks capable of stopping the other, but the Cowboys defense may have better luck getting to Brady than the Pats defense will have getting to Romo.  Should be a good game that Dallas can win.

Prediction:  Cowboys 38  Patriots 34

Niners (+4) over LIONS
Two overachieving teams meet in Detroit in what should be an interesting street fight style of game.  The Lions have more big play ability, but the 49ers have more potential for long drives.  This one should be decided in the trenches.

Prediction:  Lions 21  Niners 20

Saints (-4.5) over BUCCANEERS
The Bucs are not as bad as they looked last week, but they are not in the Saints' class yet.  Being at home will help, but they will be hard pressed to contain Brees and Sproles.

Prediction:  Saints 27  Buccaneers 20

Confidence Level High:

Panthers (+4) over FALCONS
Carolina is a better team than Atlanta right now.  Cam Newton and Steve Smith are playing better than Matt Ryan and Roddy White.  Both defenses stink.  Neither team has run the ball as much as they should.  It should be a good game, but the Panthers should pull it out.

Prediction:  Panthers 33  Falcons 28

BEARS (-2.5) over Vikings
Neither one of these teams are any good on offense and they are both good on defense.  Jay Cutler is going to take a beating in this one, but the Bears defense should do enough to win the game for them against Donovan McNabb, who reminds me of Steve McNair with how quickly his game has fallen off.

Prediction:  Bears 23  Vikings 16

RAIDERS (-6.5) over Browns
The Browns need to pound Peyton Hillis, and pound him successfully if they hope to win this game.  The Raiders are good on the D-line, so the Browns may try to throw instead.  The Raiders hold the physical edge in this one, and McFadden should have a big game.

Prediction:  Raiders 27  Browns 13

Lock of the Week:


STEELERS (-12) over Jaguars
The Steelers were immensely banged up last week and they came away with a 38-17 victory over the Titans.  The Jags have a decent defense, but it's hard to see Blaine Gabbert getting anything going against Pittsburgh's defense.  This one shouldn't be close.

Prediction:  Steelers 31  Jaguars 6