Week 3 Picks

Last week: 8-7-1

Not touching the game: 0-2
Low Confidence: 4-2
Medium Confidence: 1-2-1
High Confidence: 2-1
Lock: 1-0

Week 2 bets placed:
$15.75 to win $15 - Cowboys (-3) over 49ERS: Push - Score: Cowboys 27 49ERS 24 (OT)
$3.06 to win $3 - Packers (-11) over PANTHERS: Loss - Score: Packers 30 PANTHERS 23
$2 to win $4.10 - STEELERS (-13.5) over Seahawks: Win $4.10 - Score: STEELERS 24 Seahawks 0
$3 to win $13.05 - 4-team 5 point teaser - LIONS (-4) over Chiefs, STEELERS (-10) over Seahawks, PATRIOTS (-2.5) over Chargers, and Cowboys (+2.5) over NINERS: Win $13.05 - Scores: LIONS 48 Chiefs 3, STEELERS 24 Seahawks 0, PATRIOTS 35 Chargers 21, and Cowboys 27 49ERS 24 (OT)

$23.91 wagered - $32.90 collected = +$8.99

Week 3 Picks (HOME team in CAPS)

Not touching these games:

RAIDERS (+3) over Jets
This game can easily swing either way.   The Jets have a better team, but the Raiders present matchup problems for their offensive line.  I see a tight defensive struggle that could hinge on one big play.

Prediction:  Jets 19  Raiders 17 as Janikowski hits the crossbar from 68 yards on the game's last play.

Texans (+4) over SAINTS
This one means more to Houston.  If the Texans go into New Orleans and win, they look worthy of a first round bye.  If they lose, they are merely the best team in a mediocre division.  Of course, the same could be said of the Saints, but they don't have the need to validate themselves like the Texans do.  Whichever defense can get more stops will make the difference in this likely shootout.

Prediction:  Saints 34  Texans 31

Confidence Level Low:

SEAHAWKS (+3.5) over Cardinals
This looks like a trap game for Arizona, who really is not that good.  Seattle may be one of the worst teams in the NFL, but they are typically much better at home.  I'm feeling an upset, as Kevin Kolb and Beanie Wells get stymied by an underrated Seahawks defense.

Prediction:  Seahawks 20  Cardinals 13

Chiefs (+14.5) over CHARGERS
Going against the grain on this one.  After looking abysmal the first two weeks, the Chiefs are coming to San Diego looking desperate.  Under Norv Turner the Chargers have started poorly every year, looking content with themselves until losing to a much inferior opponent.  I don't think they will lose, but I think they will under perform.  The Chiefs are bad, but they are not as bad as they showed the first two weeks.

Prediction:  Chargers 23  Chiefs 13

Packers (-3.5) over BEARS
The Bears were dismantled by Green Bay in the NFC Championship in Chicago last year, but they held the Packers in check both times they played in the regular season.  This one will probably be close, but ultimately, the Packers have too much talent for the Bears.

Prediction:  Packers 27  Bears 20

Falcons (+2) over BUCCANEERS
The Bucs have started very slowly in both games this year before staging late comebacks.  These two teams appear to be evenly matched, but I like Atlanta because their running game has been more effective than Tampa's has.

Prediction:  Falcons 24  Buccaneers 23

Confidence Level Medium:

Ravens (-4) over RAMS
The Rams have been an enigma so far this year.  They played well against the Eagles and then dominated the Giants.  Both were blowout losses.  Huh?  The Ravens were outplayed and beaten by the Titans last week, which should eliminate the possibility of this being a letdown game for them.  They will come to play, and they will be too much for the Rams to handle.

Prediction:  Ravens 30  Rams 17

PANTHERS (-3.5) over Jaguars
This one may be a blowout victory for Carolina.  Jacksonville was awful last week and Cam Newton had another outstanding game, albeit in a seven point loss to Green Bay.  The Jags are starting rookie Blaine Gabbert at QB, which appears to help Carolina's cause.  However, the Panthers defense is in trouble and the Jaguars are sure to run a ton with Maurice Jones-Drew.  Should be a close game.

Prediction:  Panthers 27  Jaguars 21

Redskins (+5) over COWBOYS
For as much talent as Dallas has, they are extremely banged up.  Tony Romo, Felix Jones, Jason Witten, and Dez Bryant are probably going to play hurt, and Miles Austin will miss the game with a hamstring injury.  Throw in their injuries in the secondary and the Redskins have to be licking their chops.  Washington should win this game, though I think Dallas is the better team and will end up higher in the standings at season's end.

Prediction:  Redskins 26  Cowboys 23

Dolphins (+2.5) over BROWNS
Miami has been a much better road team than a home team over the last year, and this is their road opener.  Cleveland has underwhelmed so far this year after coming in with a lot of hype.  The Dolphins have more offensive weapons than the Browns, though the Browns defense is the better of the two.  Should be a close one.

Prediction:  Dolphins 23  Browns 17


TITANS (-7) over Broncos
Tennessee looked good in beating Baltimore last week and Denver just scraped by Cincinnati.  The Broncos have major injury problems, not to mention the strength mismatch in the trenches.  The Titans are more powerful and should grind out an unspectacular, but convincing victory.

Prediction:  Titans 28  Broncos 14

Confidence Level High:

Patriots (-7) over BILLS
Though the New England defense has struggled so far, I think they will come up with a few big plays in Buffalo.  The Bills looked great in the second half last week, but it did follow a dismal first half performance.  The Patriots offense has looked spectacular at all times so far this season, and the trend should continue this week.

Prediction:  Patriots 38  Bills 17

EAGLES (-9) over Giants
The Giants are a mess right now.  Philly could probably cover even if Kafka plays, but with Vick back in the lineup, this should be a blowout.

Prediction:  Eagles 41  Giants 10

Lions (-3.5) over VIKINGS
Minnesota's passing game has been dreadful and the Lions are stout up front.  Detroit's offense may struggle against a decent Vikings defense, but it's hard to see the Vikes doing enough to win.

Prediction:  Lions 24  Vikings 13

BENGALS (-2.5) over Niners
Alex Smith has been awful away from home, especially on (or near) the east coast.  Both teams are a bit underrated, but until Smith shows me something, I'm picking against him out east.  Also, the Niners are badly banged up at WR.

Prediction:  Bengals 24  Niners 17

Steelers (-10) over COLTS
The Colts have been dreadful.  The Steelers haven't looked great so far this year, but they still look like they are way too much for the old, slow Colts.

Prediction:  Steelers 31  Colts 7

Lock of the Week:

Notre Dame (-7) over PITTSBURGH
As I write this Pitt leads 12-7 in the 4th quarter.  Great.  The Irish have dominated against two good teams and one decent team so far this year, despite being only 1-2.  Pitt has given up tons of yards to bad teams, Buffalo and Maine.  I saw a blowout here, but I am apparently wrong.

Prediction:  Notre Dame 45  Pittsburgh 20