Week 4 Picks

Week 3 Picks: 8-9  (16-16-1 for the season)

Not touching these games: 1-1  (1-3 for season)
Confidence level low: 3-1           (7-3)
Confidence level medium: 4-1   (5-3-1)
Confidence Level High: 0-5        (2-6)
Lock: 0-1                                    (1-1)

Week 3 bets placed:
$8.80 to win $8.00 - Notre Dame (-7) over PITTSBURGH:  Loss - Score:  Notre Dame 15  Pittsburgh 12
$3.30 to win $6.30 - BENGALS (-2.5) over 49ers:  Loss - Score:  49ers 13  BENGALS 8
$2.30 to win $4.30 - Patriots (-7) over BILLS:  Loss - Score:  BILLS 34  Patriots 31
$3.00 to win $6.15 - EAGLES (-9.5) over Giants:  Loss - Score:  Giants 29  EAGLES 16
$3.30 to win $6.30 - Steelers (-10) over COLTS:  Loss - Score:  Steelers 23  COLTS 20
$3.00 to win $13.05 - 4 team teaser - Lsu (-0.5) over WEST VIRGINIA, Oregon (-10) over ARIZONA, Patriots (-4) over BILLS, and CHARGERS (-11) over Chiefs:  Loss
$2.00 to win $45.00 - 3 team pleaser - Notre Dame (-15) over PITTSBURGH, Lions (-10.5) over VIKINGS, Packers (-10.5) over BEARS:  Loss
$3.00 to win $12.75 - 4 team teaser - Lsu (-1) over WEST VIRGINIA, Patriots (-3) over BILLS, PANTHERS (+2) over Jaguars, EAGLES (-5) over Giants:  Loss
$2.00 to win $14.60 - 2 team pleaser - Lions (-9.5) over VIKINGS, PANTHERS (-10) over Jaguars:  Loss
$2.20 to win $4.20 - 2nd half score - Lions (-4) over VIKINGS:  Win $4.20 - 2nd half:  Lions 26  VIKINGS 3

$32.90 wagered - $4.20 collected = -$28.70

Week 4 Picks (HOME team in CAPS)

Not touching this game:

Dolphins (+7) over CHARGERS
Never bet on the Chargers in September.  Remember that and you'll live a full and happy life.  But Miami's defense has been so bad that it's hard to bet against the Chargers either.

Prediction:  Chargers 29  Dolphins 24

Confidence Level Low:

Giants (-1) over CARDINALS
After a big road win over the Eagles, the Giants travel to Arizona to take on a Cardinals team that just lost in Seattle.  Sounds like an easy win, except that the Cardinals are not as bad as they looked and the Giants played their best game.  Still, Manning can torch this weak secondary.

Prediction:  Giants 20  Cardinals 17

Panthers (+6) over BEARS
The Bears need to win this game more than the Panthers do, but Chicago needs to find it's running game soon or Jay Cutler isn't going to last much longer.  The superior Chicago defense should be the difference in the game, but Cam should make enough plays to beat the spread.

Prediction:  Bears 26  Panthers 21

Steelers (+3.5) over TEXANS
The Steelers' offensive line was porous even before the injuries started.  They are having major problems keeping Ben Roethlisberger upright.  Houston's defensive strength is their pass rush, so expect Pittsburgh to run a lot with Mendenhall and Redman.  Houston can run or throw the ball effectively, but the Steelers are always good against the run.  Can the Texans make enough plays to finally beat a good team?

Prediction:  Texans 24  Steelers 23

Jets (+3.5) over RAVENS
These two teams are very evenly matched.  Both supposedly live by the run and their defense, but both have done most of their damage through the air this year.  The Jets will come to Baltimore with a bad attitude after losing 34-24 in Oakland last week.  There will be more offense than expected, with Flacco and Sanchez both playing well this year so far.

Prediction:  Ravens 23  Jets 20

SEAHAWKS (+4.5) over Falcons
Atlanta has not found much rhythm on offense, and their defense has been ordinary at best.  Seattle always plays tough at home, and the addition of Sidney Rice seems to have woken their offense up.  The Seahawks have a stout run defense that should keep Michael Turner in check.

Prediction:  Falcons 16  Seahawks 13

Confidence Level Medium:

Bills (+3) over BENGALS
Who outside of Cincinnati (or Boston) wouldn't love to see the Bills jump to 4-0?  This is a winnable game if Buffalo can avoid the trap of underestimating the Bengals.  Cedric Benson and A.J. Green can hurt the Bills defense.  Fitzpatrick and Fred Jackson are going to need to make some plays against an underrrated Cincy defense.

Prediction:  Bills 27  Bengals 20


Lions (+2) over COWBOYS
Dallas has a ton of injuries and depth problems right now, but their top line skill position talent masks this somewhat.  Detroit is healthy and they have a beastly defensive line to unleash on Romo and Felix Jones.  With Dallas' banged up secondary, Stafford and Johnson could have huge games.  Both teams could have a letdown after big division wins.

Prediction:  Lions 34  Cowboys 27

PACKERS (-12) over Broncos
The Broncos are a mess on defense and Aaron Rodgers isn't going to help their situation any.  Green Bay's defense is improving as well, and they should be able to shut the Denver offense down.  McGahee has been a vast improvement over Knowshon Moreno, but it won't be enough to keep this one close.

Prediction:  Packers 41  Broncos 21

Patriots (-4.5) over RAIDERS
The Patriots are coming off of a loss where they blew a 21 point lead and Tom Brady threw four interceptions.  They will not be a happy bunch.  The Raiders beat the Jets last week and look to match up well with New England.  After a poor performance, bet on Brady to bounce back.

Prediction:  Patriots 31  Raiders 24

RAMS (+2.5) over Redskins
This week's upset special.  The Redskins haven't looked good the last two weeks.  The Rams got obliterated last week and they know that if they lose this game, they will have an awfully tough time recovering.  Washington better not overlook the Rams, who are neither as bad as they were last week nor as bad as their record.

Prediction:  Rams 24  Redskins 21

BUCCANEERS (-10) over Colts
This one looks like a Monday night snoozer.  The Colts are inept and the Bucs are solid, but unspectacular.  Feels like a game where Tampa slowly pulls farther ahead as the game wears on.  If LaGarrette Blount doesn't have a good game the Bucs running game may stink all year.

Prediction:  Buccaneers 27  Colts 10

Confidence Level High:

Saints (+7) over JAGUARS
The Jaguars defense is not that bad, but the Saints offense is outstanding.  New Orleans shouldn't have a problem winning this game.  The problem will be containing Maurice Jones-Drew.  MJD may rack up the yards and even open up gaps for Gabbert to exploit.  But the Saints should be able to keep this one out of reach with their dynamic offense and their defense should be better with a lead.

Prediction:  Saints 33  Jaguars 17

EAGLES (-9) over Niners
The talent level of the Philly offense is too high for the 49ers to hold in check.  And the 49ers are just not going to put up a lot of points on the east coast.  Vick, Jackson, McCoy, and Maclin should have big games.

Prediction:  Eagles 27  Niners 9

Titans (Pick 'em) over BROWNS
It's hard to picture either team at 3-1, but the Titans seem more reasonable than Cleveland.  Both defenses have been good, but the Tennessee offense has a lot more talent than the Browns offense.

Prediction:  Titans 23  Browns 16

Lock of the Week:

Vikings (+2.5) over CHIEFS
It feels a little weird to pick a winless team on the road as my lock, but the Chiefs are awful.   Minnesota could easily be 2-1 and their defense should tie the Kansas City offense in knots.  Adrian Peterson should be turned loose this week, and this game should be a blowout.

Prediction:  Vikings 31  Chiefs 13