Here are my betting picks for Week 2 of the NFL season (HOME teams are listed in CAPS):
Not touching these games with a 39 and a half foot pole:
Rams (+7) over GIANTS
I'm not even considering a wager on this Monday night game because both teams have been devastated by injuries. It is therefore difficult to predict how the teams play. However, if I have to pick somebody, I'd take the Rams. They looked better than their 31-13 opening loss to the Eagles would indicate and the Giants were outplayed by the Washington in their opener. Even on the road, the Rams shouldn't be a touchdown underdog to a team that just lost to the Redskins.
Prediction: Giants 24 Rams 20
Eagles (+1) over FALCONS
The Sunday night game is almost as difficult to predict. Atlanta thoroughly disappointed in their opening 30-12 loss to Chicago, while Philadelphia took the Rams defense apart. But the Falcons have a stout running game with Michael Turner and the Eagles were gashed by both Steven Jackson and Cadillac Williams last week. However, Atlanta plays poorly from behind when they have to rely on passing, and the Eagles secondary may be the best in the league (with all due respect to the Jets). Tough one to call, but I like Philly to cover.
Prediction: Eagles 31 Falcons 27
Confidence Level Low:
VIKINGS (-2.5) over Buccaneers
Tampa Bay did not look ready to start the season in their loss to Detroit, but Minnesota's offense was just as anemic in their opening loss in San Diego. I think this matchup is pretty dang even, and when the matchup looks even, the home team generally should cover three points. Besides, something in my mind just doesn't feel right when I picture the Bucs going into the Metrodome and winning.
Prediction: Vikings 24 Buccaneers 21
Texans (-2.5) over DOLPHINS
Last year, Houston beat the Colts in week one, celebrated finally getting over the hump, and then forgot to play the rest of their schedule. This year, the Texans dominated the Colts again, but they seem to understand that it is only one game. The Miami offense looked much improved against New England last week, but I want to see them do it again before I start believing. Houston's pass rush looked great last week and they could give Chad Henne fits. That may be the difference in the game.
Prediction: Texans 23 Dolphins 16
COLTS (+1) over Browns
Cleveland was supposed to be the surprise of the year, but their opening day dud at home against Cincinnati has lowered their expectations. The Colts were worse than most people dreamed in week one, proving how valuable Peyton Manning really is. However, I don't think they are quite as bad as they looked last week. The Browns should be looking to unleash Peyton Hillis against Indy's weak run defense, but I think the Colts will make just enough plays to win.
Prediction: Colts 16 Browns 13
PATRIOTS (-8) over Chargers
Tom Brady was unstoppable in New England's opening win over Miami, but their defense was exposed several times as well. San Diego played an excellent second half after sleepwalking through the first against Minnesota. For whatever reason, the Chargers lack the ability to focus for an entire sixty minutes, and Belichick's Patriots will take advantage of their mistakes.
Prediction: Patriots 34 Chargers 24
Bengals (+3) over BRONCOS
Denver underachieved in their opening loss at home to Oakland, while Cincinnati was fortunate to escape with a victory in Cleveland. I really want to take Denver, but their abundance of injuries could slow down their offense, and if Champ Bailey can't play, their defense is in trouble too. The Bengals are strong on the ground and run defense is Denver's weak point. I think this one may come down to the wire.
Prediction: Broncos 17 Bengals 16
TITANS (+7) over Ravens
Baltimore was inspired in week one's demolition of Pittsburgh, while Tennessee was uninspired in their opening loss in Jacksonville. Chris Johnson has had another week of practice to get into game shape, and Tennessee's defense is decent. This looks like a setup game, where Baltimore under performs after a big win.
Prediction: Ravens 26 Titans 21
Confidence Level Medium:
Raiders (+3) over BILLS
Two teams that may be surprised to be 1-0 meet in Buffalo. The Bills crushed an awful Kansas City team last week, while the Raiders beat the Broncos in Denver on Monday night. The Raiders will be without their top two, and possibly top three, wide receivers, but they don't figure to throw much anyway. Their pass rush should make life much more difficult for Ryan Fitzpatrick, and could cause the Bills' spread offense to sputter.
This one should be close.
Prediction: Raiders 24 Bills 23
REDSKINS (-3.5) over Cardinals
Washington looked good in their week one upset of the Giants, and their offense should continue to roll against Arizona. The Cardinals' defense on opening day was woeful, giving up 422 passing yards to Cam Newton, in the rookie's first NFL game. Rex Grossman is sure to make one or two bonehead plays, but he should still have a good day throwing the football. Kevin Kolb had good numbers against Carolina's defense, but he didn't look comfortable most of the day. The Redskins defense should make it more difficult on him than the Panthers defense did.
Prediction: Redskins 27 Cardinals 14
Bears (+7) over SAINTS
New Orleans' defense was atrocious in their opening loss to Green Bay. Their offense looked good, but not great, and Chicago's defense is outstanding. Without Marques Colston, the Saints are less dynamic. Chicago will be trying to win this one for Brian Urlacher, who lost his mother earlier this week. Though the Bears don't have a high powered offense, the Saints defense may make them look like one. I think Chicago may win this one outright.
Prediction: Bears 28 Saints 23
JETS (-10) over Jaguars
The problem with this line is that the Jets rarely blow teams out. But it's difficult to see Jacksonville putting many points on the board either. New York has a ton of weapons on offense, and if Mark Sanchez can take a few steps forward this year, they could be lethal. Luke McCown played pretty well against Tennessee in week one, but the Jets defense is beastly.
Prediction: Jets 24 Jaguars 6
Confidence Level High:
LIONS (-9) over Chiefs
Detroit looked as if they are for real in their opening win in Tampa Bay, while Kansas City laid an egg at home in their 41-7 loss to Buffalo. The loss of their Pro Bowl safety Eric Berry will make things even more difficult for the Chiefs going forward. The Lions will throw the ball often and well. Their defense line looks dominant as well and should stifle Jamaal Charles and Matt Cassel.
Prediction: Lions 33 Chiefs 10
STEELERS (-15) over Seahawks
The Steelers are going to be an ornery bunch after their 35-7 loss to the Ravens on opening day. Seattle lost to a weak San Francisco team, and looked dreadful on offense doing it. The Seattle defense is decent and they are the only thing capable of keeping the Seahawks in the game. Ben Roethlisberger and Rashard Mendenhall should have field days.
Prediction: Steelers 34 Seahawks 6
Packers (-11) over PANTHERS
Green Bay's offense was dominant in their 42-34 victory over New Orleans. Their defense wasn't as bad as the score would indicate, but they sure could have been better. They should play better against Cam Newton. The rookie, who played exceptionally against Arizona, should get a reality check against a tough Packer defense this week. Aaron Rodgers should have another big day against a porous (and injury depleted) Carolina defense.
Prediction: Packers 41 Panthers 17
Lock of the Week:
Cowboys (-2.5) over NINERS
Dallas dominated the Jets on the road on Sunday night for three and a half quarters, before spectacularly blowing the game. San Francisco, at home against Seattle, needed two late return TDs from Ted Ginn to ensure victory. Tony Romo should have a bounce back game against an average 49ers defense, while the Cowboys defense should force some mistakes out of Alex Smith. Felix Jones could have a big game.
Prediction: Cowboys 31 49ers 13
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